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2022 FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Macron versus Le Pen: What happens next in the French presidential election race?

We now know who will face each other in the crucial election run-off to decide the next president of France. The race for the Elysée is about to get very tense, so what happens next?

Published: 10 April 2022 20:57 CEST
France has voted in the first round of the 2022 presidential election.
France has voted in the first round of the 2022 presidential election. We take a look at what happens next. (Photo by Sameer Al-DOUMY / AFP)

The preliminary results show that Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen collected the highest share of the vote in round one, and will therefore go through to the second round run-off.

So what happens next?

Second round

Now the first round is over, we move to round two, which is held on Sunday, April 24th.

This round features only two candidates – Macron and Le Pen – and the winner just needs a simple majority of the vote. Their first round scores are not carried over, they both start again with a blank slate in the hunt to get over 50 percent of the vote.

Polling stations in mainland France will open at 8am on Sunday, April 24th and then at 8pm a projection based on a small number of counted votes is published showing the winner.

Most registered voters vote in both rounds, but it’s possible to only vote in the first, only vote in the second or abstain completely. Some voters also cast a vote blanc as a kind of protest against the quality of the candidates.

Interim

So what happens between round 1 and round 2?

Debate – there is a live TV debate between the two finalists – that is scheduled for the evening of Wednesday, April 20th. This debate has taken place in every French presidential election since 1974, except for in 2002, when President Jacques Chirac refused to debate with far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen. 

Media – Expect a lot of media coverage in the next two weeks, but broadcasters are required to give equal airtime to the two candidates in the lead up to the second round vote.

Campaigning – Formal campaigning restarts after round one, with the candidates taking part in rallies, meetings and walk-abouts as they try to drum up support. All campaigning is suspended on the day before the second round vote. 

What about the other candidates? 

The 10 losing candidates from the first round take no formal part in the election proceedings from here on in. They can, however, have an influence the second round result by calling on their supporters to back one candidate or another. 

Immediately after the first round centre right Valérie Pécresse, centre left Anne Hidalgo, green Yannick Jadot and Communist Fabien Roussel called on their supporters to vote Macron in the second round. Far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who came third and narrowly missed out on the second round, did not call for a Macron vote, but told his supporters that “not a single vote” should go to Le Pen.

These candidates  will also be anxiously looking at their final poll scores – first round candidates who scored more than 5 percent of  the vote can claim up to 47.5 percent of their campaign expenses back from the State, those who scored less than five percent can only claim a maximum of 4.75 percent back.

Initial results show that only four candidates – Macron, Le Pen, Mélenchon and the extreme right candidate Eric Zemmour – scored more than 5 percent. Centre-right Valerie Pécresse was hovering around the 5 percent mark so she might just scrape some money back.

And what happens after the second round?

The current presidential mandate expires on May 13th, so if France has a new president the handover of power must be completed by this date. If the incumbent wins, they simply carry on, although it’s quite common for a newly re-elected president to make some changes to their cabinet at this point.

This year, the presidential elections are shortly followed by parliamentary elections, when the French go back to the polls to elect their local MP to the Assemblée nationale.

At this point the new or newly re-elected president will see whether they can command a majority in the Assemblée nationale (the French parliament) and therefore how easy it is going to be to get their policies and reforms passed over the next five years.

Like the presidential elections, parliamentary elections are held over two rounds, this time with just a week between voting – on June 12th and June 19th.  

And then in either April or May 2027 we get to do this all over again with the next presidential election. 

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POLITICS

What does the new government mean for foreigners in France?

France at last has a new government and one of its four main aims is to "control immigration and promote integration" - so what is this likely to mean for foreigners in France, or those hoping to move here some day?

Published: 20 September 2024 10:36 CEST
What does the new government mean for foreigners in France?

After two weeks of intense negotiation, on Thursday evening newly-appointed prime minister Michel Barnier announced that he had succeeded in forming a government.

 He also laid out his four main priorities;

  • Improve the standard of living for the French and the workings of public services, especially schools and healthcare
  • Guarantee security, control immigration and improve integration
  • Encourage businesses and agriculture and build upon the economic attractiveness of France
  • Get public finances under control and reduce debt

He is set to give his Discours de politique générale on October 1st – this is the traditional speech that a prime minister makes laying out the main policy aims of their government.

So what is this likely to mean for foreigners living in France?

Obviously some of these things will have the same effect on foreigners as any other residents of France, since we all use the same healthcare and education systems.

The first challenge for the new government will be a budget that, as Barnier says, “gets public finances under control”. France is facing a ballooning deficit and the threat of a downgrade from ratings agencies if it cannot get spending under control.

Barnier said earlier in the week that he is “discovering that the country’s budgetary situation is very serious” – most people interpreted this as preparing to announce tax hikes.

No details of these plans have been released, but it is thought likely that extra taxes will be on business and the super-rich rather than any increase in income tax or VAT.

Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Renaissance group briefed the press that one of their conditions for joining the new government was a pledge that any tax increases would not target “the middle classes or working French people”.

Immigration

But the strand of government that is most likely to affect foreigners in France, or those hoping to move here some day, is the pledge to “control immigration and promote integration”.

Again there is no detail on this, but the French government’s most recent bill to “promote integration” introduced language tests for certain types of residency card, while raising the language standard required for other processes.

We know that Barnier himself is strongly to the right on the topic of immigration – in his unsuccessful 2022 bid for the Les Républicains presidential nomination he called for a total moratorium on all immigration into France from non-EU countries.

Barnier said he would organise a referendum if elected, asking voters to approve constitutional changes and the ability of parliament to set immigrant quotas each year.

The exact composition of the new government has not been revealed – it is expected “before Sunday” – but we do know that Barnier has appointed several ministers from within the Les Républicains party.

These are reported to include Bruno Retailleau, who sparked outcry with his comments about immigrants in the context of the 2022 riots.

Speaking about the rioters who were arrested, 90 percent of whom were French citizens, he said: “OK, they’re French, but these are French people in their official identity, and unfortunately for the second and third generations (of immigrants), there is a sort of regression towards their ethnic roots.”

Clearly for some politicians, you can never be integrated enough.

New laws?

Although it’s far too early to think of any specific policies – and the government may not last long enough to actually see any laws passed – the debate around France’s recent immigration bill does provide some clues about the goals of right-wing politicians.

The Immigration law that finally passed in January changed – among other things – conditions for certain types of residency card and introduced expanded language tests, a civics test and a declaration of allegiance to ‘French values’ for foreigners living here.

READ ALSO What changes under France’s new immigration bill

However as the bill progressed through parliament, many right-wing lawmakers attempted to add amendments to toughen it up. In the end, most of the amendments were either voted down in parliament or struck out later by the Constitutional Council, but they do provide a guide to right-wing goals.

Among the rejected amendments were;

Migration quotas – the original bill contained nothing about migration quotas, but a section on this was added in the Senate (which is controlled by Les Républicains). The amendment was vague, setting out only the principle that parliament can set migration quotas – the wording of the text talked about ‘economic migration’, suggesting that these quotas would apply only to people coming to France to work, not students or retirees. The quotas would not affect asylum seekers or people arriving on a family reunification visa.

It called for parliament to have an annual debate on migration, with the ‘objective’ of setting quotas or numbers.

This was one of many amendments that was eventually struck out by the Constitutional Council – although on procedural grounds, not because of its content.

Healthcare restrictions – currently undocumented foreigners who are in France for more than three months are entitled to basic healthcare under the Aide medicale de l’Etat, with costs reimbursed by the State for hospital treatment and medication. The amendment proposed a complete ban on this for anyone who is undocumented or in an irregular immigration situation.

Benefit restrictions – currently foreigners in France can qualify for benefits such as housing allowance or certain family benefits after they have been resident for six months, the amendment aimed to increase the qualification period to five years.

Expelling radicalised foreigners – the law that was eventually passed makes it easier to expel radicalised foreigners by removing certain protections, including the restriction that people who came to France aged 13 or under cannot be expelled once they reach adulthood. The amendment aimed toughen this up still further by allowing the expulsion not just of people who are on terror watchlists, but of people who have “committed a grave and deliberate violation of the principles of the French Republic”.

Toughen asylum rules – various amendments aimed to make it easier to expel failed asylum seekers by reducing the amount of time for appeals and allowing a notice to quit the country to be served as soon as a first application is rejected.

Limit family reunification rights – rules around foreigners in France being joined by spouses or family members would also be tightened up under the amendment, with a minimum stay of 24 months before you can be joined by a spouse or family member, and extra financial requirements.

French citizenship for children born in France – currently children who are born in France to foreign parents are automatically given the right to French citizenship once they reach 18 under the droit du sol principle (although in order to do anything practical like get a passport or ID card they still need to apply for a naturalisation certificate). Several amendments proposed that this no longer be an automatic right and children must “express their will” to get citizenship – presumably through an extra admin procedures.

All the immigration measures listed above would apply to non-EU nationals – anyone who needs a visa or carte de séjour to spend more than three months in France.

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