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2022 FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

France braces for Le Pen-Macron showdown

France on Saturday prepared to choose between centrist President Emmanuel Macron and far-right challenger Marine Le Pen to rule the country for the next five years after a bitterly contested and polarising election campaign.

Published: 23 April 2022 09:25 CEST
Updated: 23 April 2022 15:23 CEST
A pedestrian walks past campaign posters of French President and La Republique en Marche (LREM) party candidate for re-election Emmanuel Macron (L) and French far-right party Rassemblement National (RN) presidential candidate Marine Le Pen
A pedestrian walks past campaign posters of French President and La Republique en Marche (LREM) party candidate for re-election Emmanuel Macron (L) and French far-right party Rassemblement National (RN) presidential candidate Marine Le Pen in Eguisheim, eastern France, on April 21, 2022, ahead of the second round of France's presidential election. SEBASTIEN BOZON / AFP

Macron is the favourite to win re-election in the run-off ballot on Sunday, and there are indications he bolstered his advantage with a combative performance in the one-off election debate against a somewhat defensive Le Pen.

But the president and his allies have insisted over the last week that nothing is in the bag, with a strong turnout crucial to avoid a shock in France comparable to the 2016 polls that led to Brexit in Britain and the rise
to power of Donald Trump in the United States.

A Le Pen victory would send shockwaves across Europe. Left-wing EU leaders including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have pleaded with France to choose Macron over his rival.

The stakes are huge — Le Pen would become modern France’s first far-right leader and first female president. Macron would be the first French president to win re-election in two decades.

If elected, Macron is expected, in a symbolic gesture, to address supporters on the Champ de Mars in central Paris at the foot of the Eiffel Tower.

Saturday is marked by a campaign blackout, with no campaigning allowed and no more polls published.

Polls in mainland France will open at 0600 GMT on Sunday and close 12 hours later, immediately followed by projections that usually predict the result with a degree of accuracy.

READ ALSO: Follow Sunday’s French election result in The Local’s live blog

Final campaign flurry
But voters in French overseas territories that span the globe start voting earlier, beginning with those in North America and the Caribbean on Saturday, followed by the Pacific and then the Indian Ocean.

The first to have their say in the election were voters in the tiny island territory of Saint Pierre and Miquelon off the northern coast of Canada who began casting ballots at 1000 GMT.

Macron and Le Pen threw themselves into a final flurry of campaigning Friday, firing off attacks in interviews before last-minute walkabouts and rallies.

Le Pen insisted that opinion polls giving Macron the lead would be proved wrong and took aim at her rival’s plan to push back the retirement age to 65 from 62.

Macron for his part said Le Pen was trying to mask an authoritarian “extreme right” platform that stigmatises Muslims with a plan to outlaw headscarves in public.

READ ALSO: Le Pen’s plan to legalise discrimination against foreigners in France – including dual nationals

But the campaign also had some lighter moments. Macron’s quizzical stares during the TV debate and a daringly unbuttoned shirt during a campaigning break that provided a glimpse of his strikingly hairy chest became instant
Internet memes.

READ ALSO: 7 of the best Macron memes from the French election campaign

Polls have shown Macron with a lead of some 10 percentage points. The highly anticipated TV debate did not change the trend and, if anything, allowed Macron to open more of a gap.

But the result is predicted to be closer than in 2017, when the same candidates faced off but Macron carried the day with 66 percent to 34 percent.

Turnout ‘real risk’
Analysts say abstention rates could reach 26 to 28 percent, with reluctant left-wingers needing to back the president for him to be sure of victory.

Spring school holidays will also be in full swing across much of the country this weekend, although the 1969 record for a second-round abstention rate of 31.1 percent is not expected to be beaten.

Far-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon, who scored a close third-place finish in the first-round vote on April 10, has pointedly refused to urge his millions of followers to back the president while insisting they must not cast
a single vote for Le Pen.

According to Martial Foucault, director of the Cevipof political studies centre, the greater the abstention rate the more the gap will narrow between Macron and Le Pen, describing this as a “real risk” for the president.

In a final plea, Macron urged voters not to repeat the mistake of those who opposed Brexit and the election of Trump but decided to stay at home.

“They woke up the next day with a hangover,” he told BFMTV. “We are going to decide the future of the country on April 24 and not the opinion polls on April 22.”

READ ALSO: PODCAST: Why France will remain divided whoever wins Sunday’s election

But even before the results are in, eyes are already turning towards legislative elections which will in June follow hot on the heels of the presidential elections.

French political scientist Chloe Morin told AFP that whoever wins the presidential polls, France would be “harder to govern” in the next five years.

The more radical parties are likely to only win “weak representation” in parliament and set to wage their struggle in the media and the street, she said.

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POLITICS

What does the new government mean for foreigners in France?

France at last has a new government and one of its four main aims is to "control immigration and promote integration" - so what is this likely to mean for foreigners in France, or those hoping to move here some day?

Published: 20 September 2024 10:36 CEST
What does the new government mean for foreigners in France?

After two weeks of intense negotiation, on Thursday evening newly-appointed prime minister Michel Barnier announced that he had succeeded in forming a government.

 He also laid out his four main priorities;

  • Improve the standard of living for the French and the workings of public services, especially schools and healthcare
  • Guarantee security, control immigration and improve integration
  • Encourage businesses and agriculture and build upon the economic attractiveness of France
  • Get public finances under control and reduce debt

He is set to give his Discours de politique générale on October 1st – this is the traditional speech that a prime minister makes laying out the main policy aims of their government.

So what is this likely to mean for foreigners living in France?

Obviously some of these things will have the same effect on foreigners as any other residents of France, since we all use the same healthcare and education systems.

The first challenge for the new government will be a budget that, as Barnier says, “gets public finances under control”. France is facing a ballooning deficit and the threat of a downgrade from ratings agencies if it cannot get spending under control.

Barnier said earlier in the week that he is “discovering that the country’s budgetary situation is very serious” – most people interpreted this as preparing to announce tax hikes.

No details of these plans have been released, but it is thought likely that extra taxes will be on business and the super-rich rather than any increase in income tax or VAT.

Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Renaissance group briefed the press that one of their conditions for joining the new government was a pledge that any tax increases would not target “the middle classes or working French people”.

Immigration

But the strand of government that is most likely to affect foreigners in France, or those hoping to move here some day, is the pledge to “control immigration and promote integration”.

Again there is no detail on this, but the French government’s most recent bill to “promote integration” introduced language tests for certain types of residency card, while raising the language standard required for other processes.

We know that Barnier himself is strongly to the right on the topic of immigration – in his unsuccessful 2022 bid for the Les Républicains presidential nomination he called for a total moratorium on all immigration into France from non-EU countries.

Barnier said he would organise a referendum if elected, asking voters to approve constitutional changes and the ability of parliament to set immigrant quotas each year.

The exact composition of the new government has not been revealed – it is expected “before Sunday” – but we do know that Barnier has appointed several ministers from within the Les Républicains party.

These are reported to include Bruno Retailleau, who sparked outcry with his comments about immigrants in the context of the 2022 riots.

Speaking about the rioters who were arrested, 90 percent of whom were French citizens, he said: “OK, they’re French, but these are French people in their official identity, and unfortunately for the second and third generations (of immigrants), there is a sort of regression towards their ethnic roots.”

Clearly for some politicians, you can never be integrated enough.

New laws?

Although it’s far too early to think of any specific policies – and the government may not last long enough to actually see any laws passed – the debate around France’s recent immigration bill does provide some clues about the goals of right-wing politicians.

The Immigration law that finally passed in January changed – among other things – conditions for certain types of residency card and introduced expanded language tests, a civics test and a declaration of allegiance to ‘French values’ for foreigners living here.

READ ALSO What changes under France’s new immigration bill

However as the bill progressed through parliament, many right-wing lawmakers attempted to add amendments to toughen it up. In the end, most of the amendments were either voted down in parliament or struck out later by the Constitutional Council, but they do provide a guide to right-wing goals.

Among the rejected amendments were;

Migration quotas – the original bill contained nothing about migration quotas, but a section on this was added in the Senate (which is controlled by Les Républicains). The amendment was vague, setting out only the principle that parliament can set migration quotas – the wording of the text talked about ‘economic migration’, suggesting that these quotas would apply only to people coming to France to work, not students or retirees. The quotas would not affect asylum seekers or people arriving on a family reunification visa.

It called for parliament to have an annual debate on migration, with the ‘objective’ of setting quotas or numbers.

This was one of many amendments that was eventually struck out by the Constitutional Council – although on procedural grounds, not because of its content.

Healthcare restrictions – currently undocumented foreigners who are in France for more than three months are entitled to basic healthcare under the Aide medicale de l’Etat, with costs reimbursed by the State for hospital treatment and medication. The amendment proposed a complete ban on this for anyone who is undocumented or in an irregular immigration situation.

Benefit restrictions – currently foreigners in France can qualify for benefits such as housing allowance or certain family benefits after they have been resident for six months, the amendment aimed to increase the qualification period to five years.

Expelling radicalised foreigners – the law that was eventually passed makes it easier to expel radicalised foreigners by removing certain protections, including the restriction that people who came to France aged 13 or under cannot be expelled once they reach adulthood. The amendment aimed toughen this up still further by allowing the expulsion not just of people who are on terror watchlists, but of people who have “committed a grave and deliberate violation of the principles of the French Republic”.

Toughen asylum rules – various amendments aimed to make it easier to expel failed asylum seekers by reducing the amount of time for appeals and allowing a notice to quit the country to be served as soon as a first application is rejected.

Limit family reunification rights – rules around foreigners in France being joined by spouses or family members would also be tightened up under the amendment, with a minimum stay of 24 months before you can be joined by a spouse or family member, and extra financial requirements.

French citizenship for children born in France – currently children who are born in France to foreign parents are automatically given the right to French citizenship once they reach 18 under the droit du sol principle (although in order to do anything practical like get a passport or ID card they still need to apply for a naturalisation certificate). Several amendments proposed that this no longer be an automatic right and children must “express their will” to get citizenship – presumably through an extra admin procedures.

All the immigration measures listed above would apply to non-EU nationals – anyone who needs a visa or carte de séjour to spend more than three months in France.

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