SHARE
COPY LINK

OPINION AND ANALYSIS

What we learned from Angela Merkel’s first foray out of retirement

The former German Chancellor defended her legacy in her first major interview since leaving office. But it left many questions open - and hasn't impressed her critics, writes Aaron Burnett.

Former Chancellor Angela Merkel on stage in Berlin on Tuesday.
Former Chancellor Angela Merkel on stage in Berlin. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Fabian Sommer

Six months to the day since she left office, a sold out Berliner Ensemble audience gathered to see Angela Merkel’s first post-retirement media interview. Coming out with her trademark humour and a blue suit jacket, the former Chancellor answered questions from journalist Alexander Osang for an hour and a half on Tuesday evening. 

But it was also an interview that left open more questions than it answered.

Sitting at ease and cracking jokes, Merkel calmly answered Osang’s softball questions, demonstrating that even after six months largely relaxing on the German shores of the Baltic Sea, she still knows how to eat many reporters for breakfast.

Whenever the camera panned to the crowd, it showed a beaming, transfixed audience. “Altkanzlerin” or “ex-Chancellor” or not – Merkel still knows how to hold a room. And when she’s in the room, she still knows how to run the show.

Merkel isn’t doing regrets over Russia and Ukraine

Merkel’s performance during the interview was all the more notable given how her controversial record on Ukraine and Russia dominated the discussion almost entirely.

Somewhat nervously, Osang’s first substantive question – after spending several minutes talking about Merkel’s quiet retirement – was about her decision to block NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia in 2008. Ukraine at the time, was a divided country plagued by oligarchy and corruption, she said, and not prepared to be in NATO. She reasoned that because membership doesn’t happen overnight, Russia’s Vladimir Putin may well have invaded to prevent Ukraine from joining – at a time when it wasn’t ready to defend itself.

Merkel went on to say that she doesn’t regret how she handled Putin, and defended her record of keeping diplomatic dialogue open with him to try and prevent war.

“I don’t blame myself,” she told the crowd. “I would feel very bad if I had said there wasn’t any point in talking to him.”

READ ALSO: Merkel says she has ‘nothing to apologise for’ over Russia legacy

Merkel didn’t really believe in ‘change through trade’

Merkel insisted she was never under any illusions about who Putin was, and didn’t really believe in Wandel durch Handel (change through trade), or the idea that boosting economic links between Germany and Russia would change how Putin would behave. It was an uncharacteristically frank statement from a politician with a reputation for her public poker face, saying little while in office.

Yet many analysts, both inside and outside Germany, say those are claims that simply don’t stack up against evidence.

“Not believing in ‘change through trade,’ which supposedly guided German policy during much of her time, is a remarkable admission that Germany was basically just profiting from its relationship with Russia, at the expense of Ukraine and central European states like Estonia – without actually trying to use German leverage to make Russia more democratic and less threatening,” said Benjamin Tallis, a Fellow at the Hertie School’s Centre for International Security in Berlin.

“That’s just a policy of naked greed.”

Former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves commented on Merkel’s interview in similar terms.

Merkel’s answers on the state of the German army, or Bundeswehr, weren’t entirely convincing either.

“On a personal level, I thought she was good – funny, engaged, eloquent,” said Dr. Ulrike Franke, a German defence expert with the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Yet Franke says Merkel oversold her role when pushing for higher defence spending against resistance from the Social Democrats, her coalition partner. “She is right that the SPD was putting the brakes on this, and the CDU was pushing more. But her personally? Not so much.”

All the things Merkel didn’t say – from new progressive politics to energy

Merkel’s interview was perhaps just as notable for what she didn’t say – and what Osang didn’t ask her.

If Merkel really didn’t believe in change through trade, how did Germany become so  dependent on Russian energy? Osang didn’t ask. Nor did he ask about one of Merkel’s other major decisions – her surprise reversal on continuing nuclear power in Germany after the Fukushima disaster in 2011. That decision made Germany even more dependent on Russian gas, oil, and coal. 

“At the time, too little was done to diversify energy sources in Europe and Germany in order to become independent of Russia more quickly,” German Council on Foreign Relations Director Daniela Schwarzer told Tagesschau. Bild newspaper criticised her for being a Chancellor without a plan, particularly on energy. 

Nor did we hear about whether Germany should have been more ambitious in its climate targets, or whether the country’s dependence on Russian energy hampers a transition to clean energy.

Merkel’s crisis leadership during Covid-19, the euro crisis – even the 2015 refugee crisis – was scarcely mentioned at all, let alone subjected to serious questioning.

We did find out that she broadly supports the current government but doesn’t wish to comment on everything from the sidelines, akin to a grandmother trying not to tell her granddaughter how to bring up her children. From a woman who has been referred to as Germany’s “Mutti” or “Mummy,” it was an apt analogy.

But beyond its Ukraine policy, which specific bits of the new government’s agenda does the ex-Chancellor agree or disagree with? Merkel didn’t say and Osang didn’t ask.

And it would be interesting to know because a lot of change is happening. For instance, the country’s strict abortion laws are being eased. Cannabis is set to be legalised. Dual citizenship is to be allowed, even if the current government hasn’t yet said precisely when.

All of these decisions point to a very different Germany than the one under Merkel – but they weren’t discussed.

We did, however, hear quite a bit about how Merkel is spending her retirement. She is enjoying hiking in nature and reading the books she hasn’t had time to get to – including Shakespeare’s Macbeth.

Beyond that, we mostly heard about Merkel’s foreign policy, which may end up largely defining her legacy. For better or worse, that risks leaving so many of her other decisions broadly unexamined.

READ ALSO: An era ends: How will Germany and the world remember the Merkel years?

Member comments

Log in here to leave a comment.
Become a Member to leave a comment.
For members

COST OF LIVING

Kindergeld and tax relief: How Germany’s planned 2025 budget could affect you

After tough and drawn-out negotiations, the German coalition reached a draft agreement on spending for next year. Here's what we know so far.

Kindergeld and tax relief: How Germany's planned 2025 budget could affect you

Speaking to reporters on Friday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, of the SPD, looked buoyant even with no sleep. 

The Social Democrat had pulled an all-nighter along with his coalition colleagues. Luckily it resulted in a solid outcome. 

The SPD, Greens and Free Democrats (FDP) have finally struck a deal on the 2025 budget – a topic that has been haunting the government for weeks, even months. 

In a press conference held alongside Economy and Climate Protection Minister Robert Habeck and Finance Minister Christian Lindner, Scholz said: “We have not always made it easy for ourselves. We are fighting hard for the cause and we are looking for compromises.

“Sometimes half the night. Sometimes all night.”

He said that ministers pushed through on negotiations in order to “present a draft budget today punctually at the end of this week of meetings”.

By doing so, the coalition has avoided a major breakdown that may have toppled the government. 

So what does this initial agreement mean and what’s actually in it? Many of the details are still to be finalised, but here’s a look at key points so far with some more details below:

READ ALSO: German coalition strikes breakthrough budget deal after crisis

The debt brake stays

The infamous debt-brake (Schuldenbremse) – a self-imposed cap on annual borrowing – will be adhered to. A decision that shows Finance Minister Lindner got his way.

The government plans to take on €44 billion in new debt next year, in compliance with debt brake limits, which would bring Germany’s total budget volume to about €480 billion. The debt brake means there are likely tough decisions and cuts in the coming years. 

The debt brake was a key sticking point in the talks. Germany suspended the mechanism for several years during the Covid-19 pandemic and the inflation shock which followed Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The centre-left Social Democrats in particular – who are the largest party in the coalition – pushed for the debt brake to be suspended in order to push for more investment into society and fewer cuts, but Lindner was keen to see it reinstated.

Clashes over the debt brake intensified after the constitutional court threw Germany’s spending plans into disarray last November in a ruling over spending. 

German Finance Minister Christian Lindner, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and German Minister of Economics and Climate Protection Robert Habeck arrive to deliver a press conference on July 5, 2024 in Berlin, after the three parties in Germany's ruling coalition struck an agreement on the 2025 budget.

German Finance Minister Christian Lindner, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and German Minister of Economics and Climate Protection Robert Habeck arrive to deliver a press conference on July 5, 2024 in Berlin, after the three parties in Germany’s ruling coalition struck an agreement on the 2025 budget. Photo by RALF HIRSCHBERGER/AFP

Focus on children and families

A family package is a big part of the draft budget. 

Kindergeld – Germany’s child benefit – is to be increased by five euros next year, as is the emergency child allowance for families who need it, according to German media reports. 

The payments will be phased out with the introduction of basic child security or Kindergrundsicherung, and parents in Germany will then receive €255 per month per child. 

The Kinderfreibetrag – or tax-deductible sum for children – is also to rise by €228 to €9,540 in 2025 and will go up a further €60 the following year.

The government said the law would continue to ensure that child support keeps increasing in future. 

A further €2 billion will be invested from 2025 to 2026 to improve the quality of childcare facilities. 

Tax relief and pensions

People in Germany are to receive around €23 billion in tax relief in 2025 and 2026, in a bid to make sure inflation doesn’t eat up wage increases. 

As part of a so-called ‘growth initiative’ there are to be further tax improvements for companies and the self-employed as well as employees. A tax exemption on overtime hours is one idea being discussed. 

It’s also planned that skilled workers coming from abroad will receive tax relief to make Germany a more attractive option. 

READ ALSO: 8 unlikely tax breaks in Germany that international residents need to know

More support for private investments and support for small firms is also planned in a bid to encourage more people to do business in Germany. 

Meanwhile, the coalition pledged to agree on a “clear timetable” for the planned pension reform. 

Boost for the economy

Under the plans, the government is vowing to invest more in the economy in a bid to modernise the country. Investment spending is set to reach a new record level of €57 billion, with money to be set aside for various things including railways, roads, local transport and digital infrastructure.

The initiative agreed during the budget consultations is expected to increase economic growth by 0.5 percentage points in the coming year.

ICE trains

An ICE train at Berlin’s main train station. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Hannes P. Albert

Labour market bonus 

People receiving long-term unemployment benefits (Bürgergeld) are to receive additional bonus when they enter the labour market.

The coalition has summarised this as a “bonus model” to combat unemployment.

In order to make Germany more attractive as a business location, foreign skilled workers are to receive a tax rebate for the first three years. 

Billions for the Bundeswehr and social housing 

In terms of security policy, the traffic light coalition wants to fulfil NATO’s two percent target of investment every year. According to Scholz, the defence budget should reach €80 billion in 2028. The police, technical relief organisation and civil protection are also to be strengthened.

In addition, over €20 billion is to be invested into social housing across Germany by 2028.

The planned funding for climate and transformation has been secured for 2024 and 2025.

“This budget contains record investments,” said Scholz.

“In times characterised by unrest due to Russia’s barbaric war on Ukraine, unrest due to the climate crisis and unrest due to irregular migration,” said Scholz.

Less bureaucracy 

Another key point of the draft budget is reducing paperwork. 

“Companies and citizens alike are suffering from ever more bureaucracy, with official procedures taking far too long,” the coalition partners wrote in the draft budget. They are pledging to introduce measures to ensure things move more quickly in Germany in future. 

What happens now?

The next step following this initial agreement is for the party leaders to inform their parliamentary groups. This will be followed by budget discussions in the respective departments – and this could lead to yet more heated debates and adjustments.

According to the current schedule, the government wants to approve the draft budget in the cabinet on July 17th. It will then be discussed in the Bundestag after the summer break and, if all goes to plan,  adopted at the end of November.

With reporting by AFP 

SHOW COMMENTS