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Why tensions are brewing in eastern Germany over refugee arrivals

Residents of Upahl, a small town in the eastern German state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, have struggled with bringing in more refugees. But most protesters say they aren't fueled by far-right sentiments, but rather a struggle for resources.

Upahl protest
A protest against a new refugee home in Upahl on February 9th. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Frank Hormann

The main road through the northern German village of Upahl is lined with wooden placards, their bright letters standing out against the grey sky and muddy fields.

“Upahl says no”, reads one. “Think of our children!” says another.

The signs are in opposition to a planned centre for 400 asylum seekers in the town with a population of 500.

Like many communities across Germany, the district of Northwestern Mecklenburg, where Upahl is located, has witnessed an increase in arrivals of asylum seekers and people with official refugee status.

Almost 218,000 asylum applications were filed in Germany last year — more than twice as many as in 2020 and the biggest number since the influx of 2015-16.

In 2022, the largest number of people seeking asylum hailed from war-torn Syria and Afghanistan, followed by Turkey and Iraq.

In addition, more than a million people arrived from Ukraine. The latter were granted a special status that means they do not need to apply for asylum to be allowed to remain in Germany.

READ ALSO: IN NUMBERS: Over one million Ukrainians fled to Germany in 2022

To cope with the arrivals, sports halls have been requisitioned in Northwestern Mecklenburg as temporary housing for newcomers.

Quiet life

But with current capacity exhausted and between 20 and 30 new arrivals every week, local officials voted in January to set up a new centre in Upahl using converted transport containers.

It is due to open in March.

“Due to the many people who have come to us (from Ukraine) plus the asylum seekers… we have a situation that we can no longer cope with,” Tino Schomann, chief administrative officer for the district, told AFP.

“I need more places, more capacity,” he said.

But some locals are opposed to the centre have staged several demonstrations against the plans.

“Life in Upahl is so beautiful because everything is very quiet,” said Jan Achilles, 46, an environmental analyst who is also a community representative.

“When 500 people, whether refugees or Germans or whatever, are crammed together in a heap, problems arise.”

Retired truck driver Bernd Wien, 66, who has lived in Upahl since 1980, has been at all the demos.

“We just want to live here quietly, to enjoy our retirement,” he said.

After months of pleading from local officials across Germany for more help to deal with new arrivals, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser is hosting a meeting on Thursday to address the issue.

Ahead of the discussions, Faeser promised they would help offer an overview of the “joint humanitarian effort” required.

Reinhard Sager, head of the German Districts Association, called for Chancellor Olaf Scholz to take the matter into his own hands.

“The municipalities in Germany are really doing a great job and the willingness of private individuals to help is still great,” Sager said.

But “we urgently need to relieve the pressure on (local authorities) — the pressure is considerable and is increasing from day to day, from week to week.”

Far-right fears

In 2015-16, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party harnessed anger at Germany’s influx of asylum seekers to win votes and ultimately enter parliament for the first time.

Right-wing extremists have been spotted at recent protests in Upahl and elsewhere, and fears are growing that the current tensions could provide a further boost to the far-right party.

“The general situation is ultimately far more dramatic than in 2015 due to the war, inflation, economic crises and new refugees,” Hajo Funke, a political scientist at the Free University of Berlin, told AFP.

According to a recent survey by pollster INSA, around half of Germans — 51 percent — believe the country is taking in too many refugees.

However, the AfD’s support is likely to have reached a plateau because “the fear of violent fascism is widespread among more than 80 percent of the German population”, Funke said.

Upahl resident Anika Reisch, 38, has sympathy for people coming to the village “who are traumatised, who are worried about the future”.

But the mother of two, who runs an insurance business around the corner from the planned new centre, still doesn’t want it on her doorstep.

“It can’t go well for the people who come here either. They have no privacy at all. They can’t… come to terms with everything they have experienced. That can’t go well for either side,” she said.

By Femke Colbourne

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POLITICS

ANALYSIS: What’s at stake in Germany’s eastern state elections?

After success in Thuringia and Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) may well come in first in another eastern state election this Sunday. We spoke with a political scientist to analyse what's at stake as Brandenburg goes to the polls.

ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

READ ALSO: ‘Political earthquake’ – What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany 

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level. 

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

READ ALSO: ‘We need change’: Germany’s far-right eyes power after state election win

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

READ ALSO: Should foreign residents in Germany be concerned about far-right AfD win?

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government. 

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

READ ALSO: How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

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