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ANALYSIS: Are far-right sentiments growing in eastern Germany?

Two election victories for the Afd in two eastern German states, coupled with alarming results from a new study by the University of Leipzig, suggest that right-wing sympathies may be on the rise in Germany’s East.

A man holds a heart with the slogan
A man holds a heart with the slogan "Our country first!" during a rally of the AfD in Thuringia in October, 2022. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Martin Schutt

On Sunday, Hannes Loth of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) made history by becoming the first-ever mayor from his party in Germany. He emerged victorious in the mayoral election held in Raguhn-Jessnitz, Saxony-Anhalt, defeating independent candidate Nils Naumann.

The victory followed another recent success for the AfD when Robert Sesselmann was elected district administrator in the Sonneberg district of Thuringia last week, securing 52.8 percent of the vote.

Though the two districts are relatively small, these wins underscore the AfD’s ability to appeal to a substantial portion of voters in eastern Germany.

READ ALSO: Why the far-right AfD’s victory in an east German district is so significant

Last week, the results of a new study by the Else-Frenkel-Brunswik Institute of the University of Leipzig also revealed that many people in eastern Germany hold extreme right-wing opinions.

The study – a representative survey of 3,546 people in the former eastern German states of Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia and east Berlin – demonstrated a high level of approval for right-wing extremist statements.

Almost one in two respondents in the study said that they believe that foreigners only come to Germany to exploit the welfare state, while more than one in three think that the Bundesrepublik is already “dangerously over-filled”. Likewise, more than one in three called for “finally more courage for a strong national feeling” and one in four said that Germany should be tough and energetic in asserting its interests abroad.

Chauvinistic and xenophobic statements were only rejected by a minority of respondents, the study’s directors Oliver Decker and Elmar Brähler said when presenting the results in Berlin last week.

Approval for right-wing statements was particularly pronounced in the states of Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia, where every second person asked said they wanted a ‘strong party’ that embodies the ‘national community’ as a whole.

“Here, the potential for extreme-right and neo-Nazi parties to find voters is thus particularly high,” Elmar Brähler, Professor Emeritus of Medical Psychology and Medical Sociology at the University of Leipzig, said.

Participants of a rally of the right-wing extremist party Freie Sachsen (Free Saxony) hold a banner with the inscription "Asylflut Stoppen" (Stop the flood of asylum seekers) in Görlitz.

Participants of a rally of the right-wing extremist party Freie Sachsen (Free Saxony) hold a banner with the inscription “Asylflut Stoppen” (Stop the flood of asylum seekers) in Görlitz. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Sebastian Kahnert

In conducting the study, the researchers went from house to house in all five eastern German states and in east Berlin. They brought questionnaires with them, letting the respondents fill them out at their leisure and putting their answers in envelopes, to ensure that everyone gave information as they really thought and that no false consideration was given to what the interviewers might think.

READ ALSO: Far-right AfD overtakes Germany’s Social Democrats in polls

Also clearly present, though still minority opinions, were downplays of the National Socialist era. Seven percent agreed with the statement that “without the extermination of the Jews, Hitler would be regarded as a great statesman”, while six percent thought that the crimes of National Socialism have been greatly exaggerated in the writing of history and that National Socialism also had its good sides. 

Why are these views so pronounced in the east?

According to the researchers, economic concerns don’t seem to be such an important influencing factor in the right-wing attitudes as one might think, given that wages are typically lower in eastern Germany than in the west. 

READ ALSO: Is the energy crisis causing a new divide between eastern and western Germany?

Though the study found that, in the eastern German states, between 29 and 39 percent are worried about the German economy as a whole, only around 15 percent considered their own situation as bad; the rest seemed to be satisfied or at least not dissatisfied with it. 

According to the research, the experiences of the GDR still shape the attitudes of people in East Germany today.

“A quarter feel like losers of the Wende, not even half would like to call themselves winners. In retrospect, satisfaction among respondents with their life in the GDR is high,” explained Oliver Decker, Director of the Else-Frenkel-Brunswik Institute for Democracy Research at the University of Leipzig.

Two-thirds of those surveyed said that they missed the GDR.

Fears of an increasing divide

In response to the AfD’s recent victories in eastern Germany, Saxony’s Minister President Michael Kretschmer has warned of increasing polarisation in Germany.

“Something is slipping in this country,” the CDU politician told the newspapers of the Funke-Mediengruppe on Sunday.

He said that one of the reasons for the AfD’s recent success is the fact that people are “disturbed” by how politics is being done in Germany.

“The energy transition, the heating law, refugee policy and the Russia embargo brought the AfD victory. These issues threaten to tear society apart,” Kretschmer said, and argued that politicians are resorting to “blame and demarcation instead of dealing with unpleasant truths”.

“We are on the way to polarisation, as we know it from America. The debates in recent weeks don’t show that everyone understands that.”

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POLITICS

ANALYSIS: What’s at stake in Germany’s eastern state elections?

After success in Thuringia and Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) may well come in first in another eastern state election this Sunday. We spoke with a political scientist to analyse what's at stake as Brandenburg goes to the polls.

ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

READ ALSO: ‘Political earthquake’ – What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany 

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level. 

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

READ ALSO: ‘We need change’: Germany’s far-right eyes power after state election win

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

READ ALSO: Should foreign residents in Germany be concerned about far-right AfD win?

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government. 

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

READ ALSO: How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

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