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Bavarian deputy PM to stay on despite anti-Semitism scandal

The leader of Germany's powerful Bavaria state said Sunday he would keep his deputy in the job despite a row over an old anti-Semitic leaflet, hoping to draw a line under the scandal ahead of a regional election.

Hubert Aiwanger, Minister of Economic Affairs and State Chairman of the Free Voters in Bavaria (M), on a carriage at a historic horse and carriage gala at Schleißheim Palace in Bavaria on Sunday.
Hubert Aiwanger, Minister of Economic Affairs and State Chairman of the Free Voters in Bavaria (M), on a carriage at a historic horse and carriage gala at Schleißheim Palace in Bavaria on Sunday. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Matthias Balk

Bavaria’s conservative prime minister Markus Soeder said it would “not be proportionate” to sack Hubert Aiwanger — a move that would have upended the southern state’s ruling coalition.

Aiwanger has faced days of controversy over Nazi pamphlets found in his schoolbag as a teenager in the late 1980s.

The now 52-year-old is Bavaria’s deputy premier and leader of the populist Free Voters party, the junior coalition partner to Soeder’s conservative Christian Social Union (CSU).

Aiwanger has admitted being in possession of the leaflets but denies producing or distributing them. His brother has since claimed to be the author.

READ ALSO: German state leader demands answers on anti-Semitic flyer

The document proposed a satirical quiz on “the biggest fatherland traitor” and offered as a prize “a free trip through the chimney in Auschwitz”.

Aiwanger, who is also Bavaria’s economy minister, on Thursday said he had made mistakes in his youth and apologised for any hurt caused, especially to victims of Nazi-era atrocities.

Speaking at a Munich press conference, Soeder said although the leaflet was “disgusting” there was no evidence Aiwanger had written it. Aiwanger had also expressed regret for what happened 35 years ago, he stressed.

“It’s not just what you say at 16 that matters, but also how you deal with it as a 52-year-old,” Soeder said. “And if you show true remorse, it’s easier to hope for forgiveness.”

But Soeder stopped short of giving Aiwanger a free pass, notably criticising his deputy for not apologising sooner. He also said Aiwanger’s written answers to a list of 25 questions “were not all satisfactory”.

‘Witch hunt’

Soeder said the events of the past week had “damaged Bavaria” and that Aiwanger would have to work to “win back lost trust” — including by seeking out dialogue with Jewish communities.

The flyer revelations sparked widespread outrage in Germany, a country still atoning for the slaughter of six million European Jews in the Holocaust.

Former classmates also made further allegations in recent days, including accusing Aiwanger of telling Nazi jokes and giving the Hitler salute. Aiwanger either denied the claims or said he could not recall the events.

READ ALSO: Why a high profile Bavarian politician is embroiled in an anti-Semitic row

Aiwanger, who has described himself as the victim of a “witch hunt”, said Soeder’s decision showed that “the campaign against me has failed”.

“What I said from the beginning has now been confirmed: there is no reason to dismiss me,” Aiwanger told Bild newspaper.

“We must now return to the day-to-day work for our state, so that Bavaria can continue to be governed in a stable and sensible manner from the autumn onwards.”

‘Bad for Germany’

Keeping Aiwanger in office allows Soeder to keep his coalition government intact ahead of an October 8 regional election, for which postal voting has already begun.

Soeder is hoping for re-election and wants to continue governing with the right-wing Free Voters.

Latest opinion polls put support for Soeder’s popular CSU at 39 percent, with the Free Voters at around 12 percent.

Soeder on Sunday again ruled out ditching the Free Voters, saying his CSU “definitely” won’t team up with the leftist Greens who are polling at around 14 percent.

German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, from Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats, slammed Soeder’s handling of the affair.

The Bavarian premier had “made a simple power calculation” and in doing so had “damaged our country’s reputation”, she told the RND media group.

Aiwanger had “neither apologised convincingly nor been able to dispel the accusations convincingly,” she added.

Green party co-leader Omid Nouripour accused Soeder of putting political tactics above a proper reckoning with the past.

“That’s indecent and bad for Bavaria, as well as bad for Germany,” he told Spiegel magazine.

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POLITICS

ANALYSIS: What’s at stake in Germany’s eastern state elections?

After success in Thuringia and Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) may well come in first in another eastern state election this Sunday. We spoke with a political scientist to analyse what's at stake as Brandenburg goes to the polls.

ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

READ ALSO: ‘Political earthquake’ – What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany 

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level. 

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

READ ALSO: ‘We need change’: Germany’s far-right eyes power after state election win

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

READ ALSO: Should foreign residents in Germany be concerned about far-right AfD win?

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government. 

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

READ ALSO: How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

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