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POLITICS

Slowly but surely, French ex-PM edges to presidential run

His physical appearance transformed but largely pledging continuity with the rule of President Emmanuel Macron, France's popular former premier Edouard Philippe is staking out the ground for a run for the presidency in 2027.

Slowly but surely, French ex-PM edges to presidential run
Former French prime minister, Mayor of Le Havre and 'Horizons' party leader Edouard Philippe. Photo: LOIC VENANCE/AFP.

Philippe has been omnipresent in France over the past week, giving a blitz of media interviews and publishing his latest book, outlining positions well beyond his current remit as mayor of the northern port of Le Havre.

But the French have seen a man who is now almost physically unrecognisable from the premier who led the government from 2017-2020, notably including at the height of the first phase of the Covid-19 pandemic. Skin conditions have meant that Philippe, who used to sport a dark beard, is now almost completely bald.

While the 2027 race is still far off, there has already been intense jostling among Macron’s centrist faction given the president himself is not allowed to stand for a third consecutive term and polls indicate Le Pen has her best ever chance at winning the Elysee.

A poll this week by Toluna’s Harris Interactive for Challenges magazine showed that Le Pen would win the first round of presidential elections under any scenario. Of the pro-Macron faction, only either Philippe or smooth-talking Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire would make the second round ahead of hard-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon.

“A politician who comes up to you and says ‘The next presidential election? We are not thinking about it at all!’ is telling fibs,” Philippe told TF1 television in one of his many interviews this week.

Philippe, whose political party Horizons supports Macron but is not part of the president’s own Renaissance party, has yet to confirm he will run. But he has left so many hints that commentators assume he plans to seek the top job.

“I have a pretty clear idea, yes, of how things might go for me,” he told France Inter radio.

He warned in an interview with Le Monde that a victory by Le Pen, who was defeated by Macron in the past two elections in 2017 and 2022, was “possible”.

‘Plan for Elysee’

Philippe, who defected from the main right-wing party Les Républicains (LR) to back Macron in 2017, has outlined positions to the right of centre and notably expressed alarm that aspects of Islam are “radically different to what we want to do in our Republic”.

His latest book, “Places that Speak”, “is a step in his plan to take him to the steps of the Elysée,” the Le Monde daily said, describing Philippe as a man “with one foot in and one foot outside of the Macronie”.

Philippe will at all costs want to avoid the fate of his mentor, the former prime minister and Bordeaux mayor Alain Juppe, who was widely tipped for the 2017 presidential race but lost the LR nomination to François Fillon whose campaign was then torpedoed by a fake jobs scandal.

Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne has warned the government that the election is still “far off” but this has not stopped ministers jostling for position, with Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin, a protege of ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy, notably declaring his intention last month.

In a sign of the potential banana skins ahead, a complaint has been filed with national finance prosecutors against Philippe and his team over alleged misuse of funds in Le Havre. He has yet to comment.

‘Come box with me’

Philippe’s media campaign this week allowed voters to get used to his new appearance due to the twin conditions he sufferers from — alopecia hair loss and vitiligo, which changes skin colour.

But the ex-premier, known as an obsessive boxing fanatic, has insisted his general health is unaffected.

“If the French say that candidates for presidential elections must have long hair then I haven’t got a chance,” he joked on TF1. But he added: “My health is excellent and I invite anyone who doubts this to come and box with me.”

By founding his own party, Philippe has notably put some political distance between himself and Macron, who he is wary of describing as a friend. His party already has 20,000 members, including 450 mayors.

“I am close to the president of the republic,” he told France Inter. “But I am not completely identical to him either, neither in terms of style, nor even in all his convictions.”

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POLITICS

What does the new government mean for foreigners in France?

France at last has a new government and one of its four main aims is to "control immigration and promote integration" - so what is this likely to mean for foreigners in France, or those hoping to move here some day?

What does the new government mean for foreigners in France?

After two weeks of intense negotiation, on Thursday evening newly-appointed prime minister Michel Barnier announced that he had succeeded in forming a government.

 He also laid out his four main priorities;

  • Improve the standard of living for the French and the workings of public services, especially schools and healthcare
  • Guarantee security, control immigration and improve integration
  • Encourage businesses and agriculture and build upon the economic attractiveness of France
  • Get public finances under control and reduce debt

He is set to give his Discours de politique générale on October 1st – this is the traditional speech that a prime minister makes laying out the main policy aims of their government.

So what is this likely to mean for foreigners living in France?

Obviously some of these things will have the same effect on foreigners as any other residents of France, since we all use the same healthcare and education systems.

The first challenge for the new government will be a budget that, as Barnier says, “gets public finances under control”. France is facing a ballooning deficit and the threat of a downgrade from ratings agencies if it cannot get spending under control.

Barnier said earlier in the week that he is “discovering that the country’s budgetary situation is very serious” – most people interpreted this as preparing to announce tax hikes.

No details of these plans have been released, but it is thought likely that extra taxes will be on business and the super-rich rather than any increase in income tax or VAT.

Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Renaissance group briefed the press that one of their conditions for joining the new government was a pledge that any tax increases would not target “the middle classes or working French people”.

Immigration

But the strand of government that is most likely to affect foreigners in France, or those hoping to move here some day, is the pledge to “control immigration and promote integration”.

Again there is no detail on this, but the French government’s most recent bill to “promote integration” introduced language tests for certain types of residency card, while raising the language standard required for other processes.

We know that Barnier himself is strongly to the right on the topic of immigration – in his unsuccessful 2022 bid for the Les Républicains presidential nomination he called for a total moratorium on all immigration into France from non-EU countries.

Barnier said he would organise a referendum if elected, asking voters to approve constitutional changes and the ability of parliament to set immigrant quotas each year.

The exact composition of the new government has not been revealed – it is expected “before Sunday” – but we do know that Barnier has appointed several ministers from within the Les Républicains party.

These are reported to include Bruno Retailleau, who sparked outcry with his comments about immigrants in the context of the 2022 riots.

Speaking about the rioters who were arrested, 90 percent of whom were French citizens, he said: “OK, they’re French, but these are French people in their official identity, and unfortunately for the second and third generations (of immigrants), there is a sort of regression towards their ethnic roots.”

Clearly for some politicians, you can never be integrated enough.

New laws?

Although it’s far too early to think of any specific policies – and the government may not last long enough to actually see any laws passed – the debate around France’s recent immigration bill does provide some clues about the goals of right-wing politicians.

The Immigration law that finally passed in January changed – among other things – conditions for certain types of residency card and introduced expanded language tests, a civics test and a declaration of allegiance to ‘French values’ for foreigners living here.

READ ALSO What changes under France’s new immigration bill

However as the bill progressed through parliament, many right-wing lawmakers attempted to add amendments to toughen it up. In the end, most of the amendments were either voted down in parliament or struck out later by the Constitutional Council, but they do provide a guide to right-wing goals.

Among the rejected amendments were;

Migration quotas – the original bill contained nothing about migration quotas, but a section on this was added in the Senate (which is controlled by Les Républicains). The amendment was vague, setting out only the principle that parliament can set migration quotas – the wording of the text talked about ‘economic migration’, suggesting that these quotas would apply only to people coming to France to work, not students or retirees. The quotas would not affect asylum seekers or people arriving on a family reunification visa.

It called for parliament to have an annual debate on migration, with the ‘objective’ of setting quotas or numbers.

This was one of many amendments that was eventually struck out by the Constitutional Council – although on procedural grounds, not because of its content.

Healthcare restrictions – currently undocumented foreigners who are in France for more than three months are entitled to basic healthcare under the Aide medicale de l’Etat, with costs reimbursed by the State for hospital treatment and medication. The amendment proposed a complete ban on this for anyone who is undocumented or in an irregular immigration situation.

Benefit restrictions – currently foreigners in France can qualify for benefits such as housing allowance or certain family benefits after they have been resident for six months, the amendment aimed to increase the qualification period to five years.

Expelling radicalised foreigners – the law that was eventually passed makes it easier to expel radicalised foreigners by removing certain protections, including the restriction that people who came to France aged 13 or under cannot be expelled once they reach adulthood. The amendment aimed toughen this up still further by allowing the expulsion not just of people who are on terror watchlists, but of people who have “committed a grave and deliberate violation of the principles of the French Republic”.

Toughen asylum rules – various amendments aimed to make it easier to expel failed asylum seekers by reducing the amount of time for appeals and allowing a notice to quit the country to be served as soon as a first application is rejected.

Limit family reunification rights – rules around foreigners in France being joined by spouses or family members would also be tightened up under the amendment, with a minimum stay of 24 months before you can be joined by a spouse or family member, and extra financial requirements.

French citizenship for children born in France – currently children who are born in France to foreign parents are automatically given the right to French citizenship once they reach 18 under the droit du sol principle (although in order to do anything practical like get a passport or ID card they still need to apply for a naturalisation certificate). Several amendments proposed that this no longer be an automatic right and children must “express their will” to get citizenship – presumably through an extra admin procedures.

All the immigration measures listed above would apply to non-EU nationals – anyone who needs a visa or carte de séjour to spend more than three months in France.

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