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‘Disastrous results’: Germany in shock after elections in Bavaria and Hesse

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's beleaguered coalition faced calls for a reset on Monday after heavy losses at regional polls that also rang alarm bells anew about the far right's growing popularity.

'Disastrous results': Germany in shock after elections in Bavaria and Hesse
Martin Hagen (FDP), state chairman of Bavaria, puts his hands in his face at the FDP election party on Sunday. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Stefan Puchner

All three parties in the coalition — Scholz’s centre-left SPD, the Greens  and the liberal FDP — saw support fall Sunday in the southern region of  Bavaria, the country’s biggest state, and Hesse in the west.

The main conservative opposition won in both polls, as expected, while the  far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) gained more ground, causing fresh  concern about their growing appeal.

Nearly 14 million people were eligible to vote in the states, about one in five of Germany’s electorate. The polls were seen as a crucial indicator of  the population’s mood, with surging immigration and economic woes among key  topics.

“It is clear who won the vote: populism,” said news weekly Der Spiegel while the top-selling Bild said a whopping 80 percent of Sunday’s voters were  calling for a change in migration policy, citing polling institute Infratest dimap.

READ ALSO: State elections: Why did the AfD do so well in Bavaria and Hesse?

Two years after coming to power, the polls were a kind of “interim report card” for Scholz’s coalition, Der Spiegel said.

“The results are disastrous,” it went on. “The coalition needs a reset if it wants to be re-elected in two years.”

For the anti-immigration AfD, the votes were the latest sign of growing momentum and showed their appeal was extending beyond their traditional  strongholds in the ex-communist east.

The elections came after a torrid two years for Scholz’s government, which  has had to contend with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and an ensuing energy  crisis that plunged Germany into recession.

The chancellor’s coalition has also been consumed by bitter infighting on issues ranging from climate laws to spending cuts.

However Scholz’s spokesman Steffen Hebestreit sought to play down the vote setbacks, saying the government was on course to tackle the most pressing  issues facing the country.

“The chancellor is convinced that the government is doing a good job, that  it has the right positions and is charting the right course for the longer  term,” he told reporters.

Conservative strongholds

 Both states are conservative strongholds. Hesse had been ruled for 24 years by the main opposition CDU and Bavaria since 1957 by the CSU, headed by Markus Söder.

The SPD had sought to gain ground in Hesse by fielding a heavyweight to run for state premier, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser.

But the party won just 15 percent of the vote, almost five percentage  points below its last result in 2018.

The CDU maintained its first place in Hesse and extended its lead by over seven points to 34.6 percent.

State premier Boris Rhein is thus set to retain his job, while Faeser is left facing questions about her political future.

READ ALSO: State elections: What the results tell us about the future of German politics

The AfD gained about five percentage points in both Bavaria and Hesse, building on recent local poll wins, but the mainstream parties have ruled out  cooperation with it in government.

The party’s co-leader Alice Weidel said the results showed the AfD had a right to participate in government, and that “further exclusion and discrimination would show an undemocratic disregard for voters”.

The AfD is “no longer perceived only as a protest party,” she said, adding  that if the party comes second at national elections in 2025, in line with current opinion poll rankings, it would stake a claim to lead the country.

Immigration was a central theme at the polls as Germany — like elsewhere  in Europe — faces a surge of new arrivals, reviving memories of a major influx in 2015.

The victory of the CSU — the sister party of the CDU — in Bavaria was  widely expected and state premier Söder will retain his post.

But the party’s result was its worst in decades, potentially dealing a blow  to his ambitions to one day run to be chancellor.

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POLITICS

ANALYSIS: What’s at stake in Germany’s eastern state elections?

After success in Thuringia and Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) may well come in first in another eastern state election this Sunday. We spoke with a political scientist to analyse what's at stake as Brandenburg goes to the polls.

ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

READ ALSO: ‘Political earthquake’ – What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany 

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level. 

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

READ ALSO: ‘We need change’: Germany’s far-right eyes power after state election win

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

READ ALSO: Should foreign residents in Germany be concerned about far-right AfD win?

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government. 

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

READ ALSO: How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

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