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Germany to seek debt rule suspension for 2023

Germany will seek to suspend a constitutional debt limit for a fourth straight year, its finance minister said Thursday, after a shock court ruling upended government spending plans and sparked a budget crisis.

Christian Lindner
German Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) speaks in the Bundestag. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Michael Kappeler

“The federal government will present a supplementary budget to constitutionally secure the expenditures made this year,” Finance Minister Christian Lindner said in a post on social media.

Along with the new fiscal plan, the government would put a resolution to parliament declaring an “exceptional emergency situation”, the legal basis for suspending the debt rule, he said.

Germany’s top court last week said Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government had broken the constitutional debt rule by transferring money earmarked for coronavirus pandemic support to a fund to fight climate change.

READ ALSO: Why a German court struck down a €60 billion fund for climate change

The ruling left Berlin with a €60-billion hole in its budget and threw sorely needed investments into doubt.

Following the decision, the government suspended most of the projects being financed through the climate fund and imposed a broad spending freeze for the rest of 2023.

Written into the constitution in 2009 under former Chancellor Angela Merkel, the debt brake caps new borrowing in Europe’s top economy to 0.35 percent of gross domestic product.

The brake was suspended from 2020 to 2022 during the pandemic and energy crisis, but was set to come back into force this year.

Coalition agreement

Suspending the debt rule again will be a bitter pill for the coalition between the Social Democrats, Greens and pro-business FDP, which had pledged to reapply the constitutional brake this year.

The often-criticised commitment to balanced budgets has become a symbol of Germany’s fiscal prudence.

The new suspension of the debt rule is a particular blow to Lindner, who has staked his reputation on sound financial management.

The finance minister, who has intoned on the importance of clear debt limits, avoided direct mention of the brake in an earlier press conference.

Lindner said he would present the new budget for 2023 next week to “clear the decks” before “we can talk about 2024 and the next few years”.

“No new debt will be taken on. Rather, the funds that have been used for crisis management will be put on a secure legal basis,” Lindner said in his social media post.

The supplementary budget would be worth €40 billion, bringing Germany’s total deficit for 2023 to €85 billion, German weekly Spiegel reported.

The total included money already largely paid out to help tackle households and businesses with soaring energy prices, Spiegel said.

Vote delay

The government this week delayed a planned vote on the budget for next year, while it reviewed the court’s ruling. MPs were set to have their final vote on the budget next week.

The ruling had already fuelled tensions in Scholz’s uneasy coalition, at odds over how best to spend its resources.

The clash has in particular pitted Lindner and his party, the FDP, against the other two parties, some of whom argue the constitutional rules should be reformed.

Worth €212 billion prior to the court ruling, the climate fund was aimed at speeding Germany’s shift to an emissions-free economy.

Cash had also been earmarked for boosting domestic semiconductor production as Europe seeks to reduce its reliance on Asian chip imports.

The pot of money is one of several that sit outside the main government budget, including a  €100 billion fund to boost the military in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The defence ministry said on Thursday the armed forces fund was exempted from the government’s 2023 spending freeze.

Without this safeguard, the 2023 budget would have been in danger of breaching the constitution following the judgement by the judges in Karlsruhe.

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POLITICS

ANALYSIS: What’s at stake in Germany’s eastern state elections?

After success in Thuringia and Saxony, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) may well come in first in another eastern state election this Sunday. We spoke with a political scientist to analyse what's at stake as Brandenburg goes to the polls.

ANALYSIS: What's at stake in Germany's eastern state elections?

German politics’ “eastern September” is set to finally end Sunday – with more ruminations and reflections likely to come about the recent fortunes of the far-right AfD at the ballot box.

If current polls are anything to go by, the AfD could come in first in the eastern state encircling Berlin – which counts Potsdam as its capital.

After overtaking the governing Social Democrats (SPD) in a recent shock poll, the party is currently at around 28 percent, compared to the SPD on 25 percent. The centre-right Christian Democrats come in at 16 percent in the latest poll and the left-populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) – named after its founder – charts in at 14 percent.

The remaining parties come in much lower – with the Greens, Left and liberal Free Democrats all facing possible ejection from the state parliament.

Another victory for the AfD – or even a strong showing should the SPD still manage a narrow surprise win – will certainly boost the far-right’s confidence, after it came in first in Thuringia and second in Saxony earlier this month, following state elections that saw all three of Germany’s federally governing parties take massive losses.

Thuringia and Saxony results will likely hang over Brandenburg on Sunday – with Germany’s governing parties, many everyday Germans, and foreigners all watching with some trepidation. Here’s what to watch out for following the Brandenburg result.

READ ALSO: ‘Political earthquake’ – What the far-right AfD state election win means for Germany 

A newly confident AfD insists it must be part of government

The AfD has repeatedly argued that it must be considered as a possible coalition partner to join German governments – whether at the federal, state, or local level. 

“There are no politics without the AfD,” its co-leader Tino Chrupalla said following the Thuringia results. However, all other parties have explicitly refused to work with the AfD to form a governing coalition – meaning that as high as its results this month have been, they fall well short of the absolute majority that would be required to govern alone.

READ ALSO: ‘We need change’: Germany’s far-right eyes power after state election win

However, its getting more difficult to form coalitions to keep the AfD out, with the centre-right CDU in Thuringia even open to governing with the leftwing populist BSW after mainstream parties like the Greens and FDP were thrown out of state parliament entirely.

University of Mainz political scientist Kai Arzheimer, who specialises in the German far-right, says whether the far-right ever get into a German government or not depends mostly on whether – and how – the CDU is willing to work with the AfD.

Thuringia election results on a screen

People watch the first exit polls results for Thuringia’s state elections come in at the State Parliament in Erfurt on September 1st, 2024. Photo by Joerg CARSTENSEN / AFP

“For the time being, it should be able to form coalitions against the AfD, even if they are rather awkward,” says Arzheimer, who adds that even the different regional chapters of the CDU may have different opinions about working with the AfD.

“Within the eastern state parties of both the CDU and the FDP, there seems to be some appetite for coming to an arrangement with the AfD. While a formal coalition would probably split either party, we have already seen some tentative moves towards an informal cooperation.”

Ultimately, the Brandmauer or “firewall” concept in German politics – in which all other parties refuse to work with the AfD – may end up coming under increasing stress on the back of eastern state election results, where governing with the far-right no longer becomes unthinkable.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?

What the mainstream parties take from eastern election results

It’s probably no coincidence that Germany’s ruling government decided to re-institute border controls at its land borders with other EU states shortly after the AfD topped the Thuringia state poll, according to Arzheimer, who says the elections are just the latest in a number of things at work when if comes to Germany’s migration debate.

“The border controls, the plans for the stricter enforcement of repatriation orders, and most of all the government’s harsher rhetoric are as much a reaction to Saxony and Thuringia as they are an attempt to control the fallout from the Solingen knife attack and a response to the whole ‘debate’ on immigration,” he says.

“Many experts seem to agree that they are neither practical nor that useful, and introducing them more or less overnight smacks of a degree of panic.”

READ ALSO: Should foreign residents in Germany be concerned about far-right AfD win?

Polls conducted following the election found that migration and internal security issues were big drivers of the AfD vote – despite these being issues for the national, rather than regional, government. 

Of the AfD voters in Thuringia, more than 70 percent said either migration or crime and internal security played the largest role in influencing their vote. Slightly less than ten percent said social security. Despite the AfD’s pro-Russian views, only three percent of AfD voters in Thuringia said Germany’s support of Ukraine decisively influenced their votes.

Besides the mainstream parties like the SPD reacting with spur-of-the-moment migration policies, the Brandenburg result may end up putting pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz from within his own SPD.

Brandenburg SPD’s Dietmar Woidke may still be able to hold onto the premiership, but he has said he will resign if he doesn’t beat the AfD outright. Should he lose, calls may grow louder within the SPD for Scholz to resign himself – or at least declare that he won’t stand as a chancellor candidate again.

READ ALSO: How an explosive row over immigration has divided Germany

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