Statistics Sweden’s Political Party Preference Survey gets published every year (twice a year until 2023) and is seen as one of the best indicators of Swedes’ political inclinations.

It’s bad news for the right-wing government, and very bad news for two of its parties, according to the latest edition of the survey which was released on June 13th.

It predicts that the Christian Democrats would win 2.8 percent of the vote in an election today and the Liberals 3.2 percent, below the 4 percent required to get into parliament.

It’s worth pointing out that it’s not uncommon for the smaller parties to be polling below the threshold in between elections, but then recover enough to scrape through by the skin of their teeth when it’s actually time to vote. But it also marks the worst result the Christian Democrats have had in the survey since they entered parliament in 1991.

In total, the government and their Sweden Democrat backers would scramble together 45.3 percent of the vote – less than a majority – but in practice even less as the Christian Democrat and Liberal votes wouldn’t count if they lost their seats in parliament.

The centre-left Social Democrats are as usual comfortably the biggest party. At 35 percent, they’re down 3.6 percentage points on the previous Party Preference Survey in June last year, but up 4.7 percentage points on Sweden’s 2022 parliamentary election.

The Moderates, who run Sweden’s government coalition, hold on to their second spot with 19.8 percent, followed by the far-right Sweden Democrats at 19.5 percent.

The Sweden Democrats, who recently had a surprisingly big loss in the EU election, are polling one percentage point below their 2022 result, but 1.5 higher than last year’s poll.

On the left flank, the Left Party has also improved its performance on the 2022 election, polling at 8.2 percent, followed by the Green Party at a largely unchanged 5.2 percent.

The Centre Party, where new leader Muharrem Demirok has been struggling to make his mark, is hovering dangerously close to the parliamentary threshold, at 4.5 percent.

Statistics Sweden carried out the survey in May and interviewed more than 4,400 people.