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ELECTIONS

French election breakdown: Party alliances and the Ciotti soap opera

Five days into campaigning for the snap parliamentary elections in France, here's our latest election breakdown bringing you up to date with the latest - from the party alliances and deals to the high farce at the party HQ of Les Républicains.

French election breakdown: Party alliances and the Ciotti soap opera
Members of the media wait for the leader of Les Republicains to leave the party headquarters in Paris. Photo by STEPHANE DE SAKUTIN / AFP

During the election period we will be publishing a bi-weekly ‘election breakdown’ to help you keep up with all the latest developments. You can receive these as an email by going to the newsletter section here and selecting subscribe to ‘breaking news alerts’.

It’s now five days since French president Emmanuel Macron’s surprise election announcement and right now, it’s all about alliances – namely which parties will succeed in making electoral pacts. And attempts to form these alliances have produced the funniest and most dramatic moments so far.

The end of Eric?

First up was Eric Ciotti, leader of the right-wing Les Républiains party, who announced an alliance with Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National. However, party bigwigs (this is the former party of Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy) were horrified by his deal and immediately attempted to expel him.

Farce ensued with Ciotti locking the doors of the party Paris HQ, party bosses holding a meeting to expel him anyway, Ciotti refusing to accept their verdict and announcing a legal challenge, then posting a video of himself arriving at the office the following morning insisting that he was still in charge.

Cue a veritable tsunami of jokes and social media memes as most of France grabbed some popcorn and settled down to watch the drama. 

Family drama

Also having some internal issues is Reconquête, the party founded by right-wing polemicist Eric Zemmour in 2022 whose platform was, basically, that Le Pen was no longer far right enough.

They gained five MEPs at the European elections, but within 48 hours Zemmour had expelled four of them from the party after they attempted to form an alliance with RN. Among those he branded “traitors” was the party’s lead candidate Marion Maréchal, niece of Marine Le Pen who very publicly broke with her aunt in 2022 to join Zemmour.

Zemmour himself went on TV to talk through his feelings of betrayal. 

Popular for some 

Over on the left of the political spectrum things have been – most uncharacteristically – calmer and more cordial. The four biggest parties on the left (the hard-left La France Insoumise, the centre-left Parti Socialiste, the Greens EELV, and the Communist Party) have concluded an election pact not to stand candidates against each other.

The deal will see 229 LFI candidates, 170 PS candidates, 92 Greens and 50 Communists.

However the solidarity of the ‘Front populaire’ could soon splinter as they continue to discuss the hypothetical question of who they would nominate as prime minister, should they gain an absolute majority in parliament.

Three-way split

So it looks like the elections will be – as they were in 2022 – largely fought on a three-way split; the combined parties of the left; the far-right with a few allies and the centrist bloc made up of Macronists plus the two smaller centrist parties (MoDem and Horizons).

What next?

Candidates have until the end of Friday to submit their papers and the next big date is Saturday, when towns and cities all over France will hold demos protesting against the rise of the far-right – find the full list here.

While politicians across the spectrum continue to snipe at each other and jostle for position, many people across the country are simply appalled at the prospect of the far-right in power in France, and thousands of them are expected to take to the streets over the weekend to show their feelings.

READ ALSO What a far-right prime minister could mean for foreigners in France

Then, on Monday, the campaign proper begins – parties that not already done so will need to produce a manifesto and the conversation will likely move away from the amusing soap opera of alliance-building and onto policy platforms and candidates.

We will be publishing this election breakdown twice a week during the election period. You can receive these as an email by going to the newsletter section here and selecting subscribe to ‘breaking news alerts’.

Member comments

  1. Yes, thank you Emma for these excellent explanations (which are refreshingly devoid of political-analysis claptrap!), But one question: in your sentence under “Three-Way Split” I’m not sure where it will be that Les Republicains, diminished and quarrelling as they are, will fall in. Allies of the far right or the centrist bloc? Haha, maybe I am not sure because that is an open question.

    1. Yes good point – I think the biggest problem is that Les Républicains themselves aren’t sure where they will fall in! I guess we’ll find out next week . . .

  2. I add my thanks. I appreciate that the articles are tailored to meet the information needs of thelocal community.
    Maybe it is time to add an option to donate in addition to subscribing.

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ELECTIONS

French parties in final push for votes ahead of snap elections

France's political forces are making a final bid on Friday for votes in crunch legislative elections that could see the far right take control of the government in a historic first.

French parties in final push for votes ahead of snap elections

The official campaigning period ends at midnight on Friday, followed by a day off on Saturday, during which political activity is forbidden ahead of voting on Sunday. Another week of campaigning will then lead up to the decisive second round on July 7th.

The far-right Rassemblement National (RN) is tipped to win the election, potentially giving the party the post of prime minister for the first time in its history in a tense “cohabitation” with centrist President Emmanuel Macron.

What’s at stake for foreigners in France if far-right Jordan Bardella becomes prime minister?

“Of course, I want to avoid the extremes, especially the far right, being able to win” the ballot, Macron’s Prime Minister Gabriel Attal told broadcaster BFMTV on Friday.

Opinion polls suggest his centrist alliance will come only third behind the RN and a broad but fragile left-wing coalition, the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP).

The RN party chief, Jordan Bardella, 28, would have a chance to lead a government as prime minister.

But he has insisted he would do so only if his party wins an absolute majority – 289 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly – after the second round.

His party’s path to victory could be blocked if the left and centre-right join forces against the RN in the second round of voting.

Macron has caused controversy in the past two weeks by placing the left and the far-right on the same footing, labelling both “extremes”.

Speaking in Brussels on Thursday, however, he suggested that he would support moderate leftists against the far-right in the second round.

Macron also blasted the “arrogance” of the far right, which had “already allocated all the (government) jobs” before the election and questioned the president’s constitutional role as military commander in chief.

“Who are they to explain what the constitution should say?” he asked.

The RN’s three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen had ratcheted up tensions by saying that the president’s commander-in-chief title was purely “honorific”.

In the event of Macron having to share power with an RN-led government, “it’s the prime minister who holds the purse strings”, she warned.

In a televised debate on Thursday night, Attal said that Le Pen’s remarks sent a “very serious message for the security of France.”

Bardella sought to reassure voters about his party’s foreign policy, saying in the debate he would “not let Russian imperialism absorb an allied state like Ukraine”.

He said he was also opposed to sending longer range missiles to Ukraine that could hit Russian territory “and place France and the French in a situation of co-belligerence”.

“My compass is the interest of France and the French,” said Bardella.

Macron has insisted he will serve out the remainder of his second term until it expires in 2027, no matter which party emerges on top in the coming legislative contest.

Le Pen, whom opponents have long accused of having too cosy a relationship with the Kremlin, senses that this could be her best-ever chance to win the Elysée Palace after three previous attempts.

When he called the snap vote after a June 9th European Parliament election drubbing by the RN, Macron had hoped to present voters with a stark choice about whether to hand France to the far right.

An Opinionway poll of 1,058 people published Friday in business daily Les Echos predicted the RN would win 37 percent of the vote, the NFP 28 percent and Macron’s alliance just 20 percent.

In the second round, the RN “can not only envisage a relative majority, but we cannot exclude, far from it, an absolute majority,” Brice Teinturier, deputy director of competing pollster Ipsos, told AFP.

The televised debate, where Attal and Bardella were joined by Socialist leader Olivier Faure, was as ill-tempered as the first such session on Tuesday.

Attal charged that 100 RN candidates standing in the election had made “racist, anti-Semitic and homophobic comments.”

“Everything is false, utterly false,” responded Bardella, who also defended a controversial proposal to bar dual nationals from sensitive state posts.

Underscoring the stakes felt by many in France from ethnic minority backgrounds, French basketball superstar Victor Wembanyama said “for me it is important to take a distance from extremes, which are not the direction to take for a country like ours”.

He joins a host of other French sports, music and acting stars who have spoken out against the far right.

How to follow all the latest French election news in English this weekend

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