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FRENCH ELECTIONS

French PM and far-right chief clash in ill-tempered TV debate

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and the chief of the main far-right party Jordan Bardella clashed in an ill-tempered debate on Tuesday night that exposed fierce tensions less than a week ahead of the most polarising election in decades.

French PM and far-right chief clash in ill-tempered TV debate
From left - La France Insoumise's Manuel Bompard, Prime minister Gabriel Attal and Rassemblement National president Jordan Bardella . the three will take party in a TV debate on Tuesday evening. Photo by JOEL SAGET / AFP

Attal, Bardella and hard-left MP Manuel Bompard, representing the left-wing coalition, exchanged accusations in a sometimes bruising live TV encounter where discussion of issues was often drowned by a cacophony of voices.

Bardella’s Rassemblement National (RN) still has a clear lead in opinion polls ahead of Sunday’s first round of voting in the parliamentary elections, followed by the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) coalition with President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance lagging in third.

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At just 28, Bardella could become the first far-right prime minister in France’s modern history after the second round on July 7th, although he has said he will only take the job if the RN wins an absolute majority in parliament.

Bardella vowed that “if the French give me their confidence I will be the prime minister of purchasing power”, pledging cuts to VAT and tax breaks for the under 30s.

“I am prime minister. The difference with me is that I do not want to lie to the French,” retorted Attal.

“Jordan Bardella says every time that he will reduce VAT as if by magic but without saying how he will finance it,” he added.

Bompard meanwhile told the premier “you are badly placed to give lessons on the economy, given your record.”

Attal, 35, portrayed himself as safe pair of hands with experience of the realities of power, repeatedly asking Bardella “how will you finance it?” and saying “I will remain serious”.

“Excuse me Mr Teacher!” Bardella bristled at one point, while adding that “if you were credible we would not be here at all” — a reference to Macron’s dissolution of parliament following his party’s third place in European elections.

“Mr Attal be humble tonight, please,” Bardella said. “Stop your cinema please. You are not at the level of your office.”

Attal also rounded on Bardella for his controversial proposal to ban French dual nationals from public sector jobs, asking what message it sent to children growing up in France as dual nationals.

“The message that you send is dual nationals are half nationals,” he said.

READ ALSO What is Le Pen’s party policy on dual nationals?

The RN leader said for his part he would “drastically reduce migratory flows” if he becomes prime minister.

“There are millions of French who do not recognise the France that they grew up in,” he said.

Referring to the origins of Bardella, who is himself of Italian and also Algerian ancestry, Bompard said: “When your personal ancestors arrived in France, your political ancestors said exactly the same thing. I find that tragic.”

Regardless of the result, Macron has vowed to stay on as president until the end of his second term in 2027.

He has been criticised from all sides for his decision to call the snap election after his party received a drubbing in the European election earlier this month.

A warning issued by Macron Monday that the programmes of the two “extremes” on left and right could spark a “civil war” also sparked disquiet even within his own ranks.

Parliament speaker Yael Braun-Pivet, a senior member of the ruling Renaissance party, acknowledged that the French “have found it hard to understand” the dissolution. Former premier Edouard Philippe, who leads an allied centrist party, said simply that Macron had “killed the presidential majority”.

An Ifop poll has the RN on 36 percent support, the left-wing NFP on 29.5 percent and Macron’s camp on 20.5 percent, leading the unpopular president’s allies to beg him to step back from the campaign.

Bardella said France would have a new government after the elections and now faced the “historic choice” of whether it would be from the left or far-right.

Powerful Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin told BFMTV he wanted to leave the government after the election, sit as an MP and “build a new project”.

“We are at the end of the cycle, we need to build another,” he said.

Meanwhile, Bardella and Attal had both requested that the left-wing slot in Tuesday’s debate be taken by La France Insoumise founder Jean-Luc Mélenchon rather than Bompard.

A former presidential candidate, Mélenchon is the most recognisable but also the most divisive figure on the left due to his radical positions.

Mélenchon himself has refused to rule himself out of the running, saying his name “opens doors in working-class neighbourhoods” but many on the left hope an alternative figure will emerge.

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ELECTIONS

Will the far-right get a majority in the French parliament?

With the far-right in the lead after the first round of the snap French elections the big question now is whether they can win a majority in parliament - which gives them the right to nominate the prime minister.

Will the far-right get a majority in the French parliament?

Preliminary results for round one of voting on June 30th show the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party in the lead with 34.5 percent of the vote, followed by the left alliance Nouveau Front Populaire on 28.1 percent and Emmanuel Macron’s centrist group on 20.8 percent.

Follow the latest on the results HERE.

We now move on to round two – which will give the final results in each of France’s 577 constituencies.

The big question is whether any party or group can reach the magic number of 289 seats, which would give them a majority in the Assemblée nationale (the French parliament).

A party or group that gets 289 seats not only gets to exercise control over votes on legislation, but can also nominate a member of the party to be prime minister.

If a party other than the president’s party has a majority then the prime minister and the president are forced to work together in an easy alliance known as a cohabitiation.

So will the far-right RN win enough seats to get a majority?

First things first – this is all guesswork, we won’t know for certain whether Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s party will have enough seats for a majority until the results of the second round are in on the evening of Sunday, July 7th.

However the pollsters have been working their magic trying to predict the total seat share from the first round vote and it seems they RN are set to win a huge number of seats. 

Various different polling agencies have different and very wide estimates, but all are saying that the final result for the RN could be close to that key number of 289.

A projection for the Elabe institute for BFMTV, RMC and La Tribune Dimanche put RN and its allies on between 255 and 295 seats.

Early projections from Ipsos suggest that RN and its allies could win between 230 and 280 seats in parliament.

It’s worth noting that given the unpredictability around the second round of voting (see below) France’s official polling watchdog does not endorse the seat projections by the polling companies.

Polls in the run up to the first round suggested the RN would not gain an absolute majority in parliament but wouldn’t be far off.

Second round votes

A big factor in the second round will be the ‘triangulaires’ or areas where the second round has three candidates.

In areas where this happens, it’s possible that some parties will agree to withdraw candidates in order to avoid splitting the vote – negotiations are ongoing in this area but it’s most likely to happen with leftist or centrist candidates.

The intention is to present a common front against the far-right – so if this happens in a significant number of areas it could affect the far-right’s overall seat numbers.

Follow the latest on those negotiations HERE.

Prime minister

If the far-right does gain an overall majority it has the right to nominate a candidate for prime minister and that person will be 28-year-old Jordan Bardella.

He has already said that he will only accept the PM role if his party wins an overall majority.

Although Macron will remain the president, having a parliamentary majority and a prime minister means the far-right will be in a much stronger position to implement some of their flagship policies including a drastic reduction in immigration and the imposing of ‘French preference’ to give precedence to French citizens in employment and housing.

READ ALSO What would a far-right prime minister mean for foreigners in France?

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