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French elections: What happens next as far-right lead in round one?

The results for the first round of France's snap elections show the far-right with a strong lead. But we're only half way there with the second round of voting to come. Here's what happens next.

Published: 30 June 2024 08:08 CEST
Updated: 1 July 2024 08:25 CEST
French elections: What happens next as far-right lead in round one?
French President Emmanuel Macron and his wife Brigitte going to vote on Sunday. Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP

The final results for round one of voting, released early on Monday morning, showed the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party well in the lead with 33.4 percent of the votes.

They were followed by the alliance of leftist parties, called the Nouveau Front Populaire on 28 percent, Macron’s centrist group Ensemble on 20.8 percent, and the right-wing Les Republicains party on 10.2 percent.

Follow the latest on the results HERE.

Two-rounds of voting

In this election the first and second rounds are just one week apart – voters will return on Sunday, July 7th and make their choice between the second-round candidates. Votes are not carried forward between the rounds, meaning that July 7th is a blank slate.

Not all candidates get to stand in the second round of the vote and some groups may withdraw their candidates meaning the second round could be very different.

The two highest scorers from round one go through, along with any other candidate who gets more than 12.5 percent of the total votes cast.

Usually round two is a two-horse race, but the high turnout at these elections mean that more three or even four-way contests are likely in round two.

READ ALSO How does France’s two round voting system work?

First round results 

Therefore the results of round one tell us only who will be the candidates for each area in round two – not who has or will win.

That’s still pretty significant though, and naturally round one results give an indication of how people are likely to vote in round two.

Deals

The next few hours and days are likely to be taken up with deals.

Typically in French elections, the defeated parties will urge their supporters to vote for one side or the other in the second round.

That’s usually even more the case when a far-right candidate is still involved – parties will call on voters to Faire un barrage (make a roadblock) against the far right, or invoke Le Front républicain, the term for when parties unite across the political divide to combat the far-right.

READ MORE: French elections: Will parties withdraw candidates to block the far right?

After the results were released, Macron called for a “broad” democratic alliance against the far-right.

“Faced with Rassemblement National, the time has come for a broad, clearly democratic and republican alliance for the second round,” he said in a statement.

In a three-way contest, parties also have the option of withdrawing their third-placed candidate in order to avoid splitting the vote – for example in a three-way contest between a centrist, a leftist and a far-right candidate the centrist and leftists may decide between them to withdraw one candidate in order not to split the anti-far right vote.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon and other Nouveau Front Populaire leaders announced that the group would withdraw its candidates in any constituency where they finished third place after round one.

“Our instructions are clear: not one more vote, not one more seat for the RN”, said Mélenchon.

Fellow NFP leader Rahaël Glucksmann said: “We have seven days to avoid a catastrophe for France.”

Voters who find the second-round choices unpalatable have the option of abstaining (which is why turnout will be carefully monitored) or casting a ‘vote blanc‘ – a blank ballot paper – to express their opposition.

Next Sunday

The second round of voting takes place on Sunday, July 7th and – like round one – provisional results will be released at 8pm.

READ MORE: Explained: The big names and main parties in France’s snap elections

A party needs a minimum of 289 seats to get an overall majority in parliament – any party that gets this number will be able to put forward their candidate for prime minister. If it is either RN or NPF, that prime minister will then enter a cohabitation with President Macron – who remains president whatever the results are.

If no group or party gets 289 seats, then we’re in for messy and protracted negotiations.

The most likely scenarios are either a coalition or some kind of ‘government of national unity’, perhaps headed by a figure from outside politics.

Truthfully, however, no-one really knows since this has never happened since the start of the Fifth Republic in 1958. We’re entering uncharted waters . . .

READ MORE: Will the French far-right get a majority in parliament?

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ELECTIONS

The French town showcasing far right’s ‘respectability strategy’

With France's far right set to win Sunday's parliamentary election runoff, voters across the country are wondering what life under a Rassemblement National government would be like.

Published: 4 July 2024 08:43 CEST
The French town showcasing far right's 'respectability strategy'

A small town in the north of the country already knows.

Henin-Beaumont, population 26,000, has been run by the Rassemblement National (RN) since the former mining town voted in the far-right party in local elections in 2014, and then again in 2020.

It is often described as “the fiefdom” of RN heavyweight Marine Le Pen, an unassailable fortress of support, and a bridgehead for her national campaigns.

Le Pen, who was a local councillor in Henin-Beaumont between 2008 and 2011, last Sunday also won re-election as a National Assembly deputy, scoring a commanding 64.6 percent of Henin-Beaumont’s vote.

Steeve Briois, Henin-Beaumont’s mayor for the last decade, took over from a leftist administration tainted by corruption, and won re-election with a comfortable absolute majority.

“Mr Briois is sociable, loved and friendly,” said party activist Charlotte Chabierski. “When there’s a local festivity, he’ll get up on stage and sing.”

Local people, she said, were delighted with his record that included lower local taxes, less crime and a cleaner town.

“The quality of life is really good,” said Valentin, a 30-year-old shop assistant who declined to give his last name. “We have a mayor who looks after his town and his co-citizens.”

The local success story of Henin-Beaumont is a great help to Le Pen’s “strategy of respectability”, said Pierre Mathiot, a political scientist at the Sciences Po Lille university.

Briois had been “very quick to hide the more questionable aspects of the RN’s behaviour”, presenting himself as “a decent chap, everybody’s idea of an ideal son-in-law”.

‘Save a region that is suffering’

The Henin-Beaumont experience, meanwhile, had allowed Marine Le Pen to present herself “as a grassroots politician and not a Parisian”, he said. “As somebody who will save a region that is suffering and by extension, save France.”

In the aftermath of last Sunday’s first round of National Assembly elections, Henin-Beaumont residents went about their daily business quietly. There was no noticeable festive mood after the voting triumph, and few people were willing to talk, a sign of widespread suspicion of visiting journalists.

“The vote is over, I don’t have anything to say,” said a pensioner waiting at a bus stop with her shopping.

“This is part of the RN’s strength,” said Ines Taourit, a councillor for the opposition Socialists. “They have managed to build a wall of silence in this town, an omerta.”

This makes it harder to gauge the depth of what Le Pen’s opponents say is widespread anti-immigration sentiment and racism in the party.

Except perhaps during this week’s Euro 2024 match between France and Belgium, when a regular customer in a bar showing the game shouted “Too many immigrants!” when a shot by French-Cameroon player Aurelien Tchouameni missed the goal.

But the bar erupted in joy after Randal Kolo Muani, a French-Congolese striker, scored, securing France’s spot in the quarter finals.

On fundamental issues such as the economy — crucial in an area that is part of France’s impoverished rust belt — and local services, the RN would like their policies not to attract too much scrutiny, Taourit said.

The party’s management had involved “the privatisation of almost all public services” such as nursery schools and swimming pools, leading to “a steep cut in purchasing power”, she said.

“The voting booth is no test lab,” she said. “We shouldn’t walk into this trap, because in the end they will implement an ultra-liberal policy everywhere, just as they’re doing in Henin-Beaumont,” she said.

Some of the town’s residents, meanwhile, profess deep scepticism towards politicians from all sides.

“They’re all scumbags,” said a man drinking in a bar in the town centre. “That’s why I don’t vote.”

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