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ELECTIONS

Is France facing a summer of political chaos and unrest?

All eyes were supposed to be on Paris this summer as the French capital lays on the sporting extravaganza of the Olympics - but will attention instead be fixed on the chaotic political situation and possible unrest on the streets?

Is France facing a summer of political chaos and unrest?
A demonstrator holds a flare during a rally against far-right after the announcement of the results of the first round of parliamentary elections, at Place de la Republique in Paris on June 30, 2024. (Photo by Geoffroy VAN DER HASSELT / AFP)

One of French president Emmanuel Macron’s stated aims in calling a snap parliamentary election – three years earlier than scheduled – was to provide some political clarity.

To say that this failed would be a considerable understatement.

While the electorate did issue a firm rejection of the far-right Rassemblement National, the parliament is now hopelessly divided with no party even close to a majority and the country entering a period of political chaos and uncertainty unsurpassed since the start of the Fifth Republic in 1958.

As the political wrangling continues, there are calls for French people to take to the streets over what is seen as a “denial of democracy”.

So what happens now? 

Current government 

For the moment, France does still have a government in place. President Emmanuel Macron remains in post – as he was always going to since in France the president is elected separately to the parliament.

Prime minister Gabriel Attal offered his resignation to Macron the day after the elections but Macron asked him to stay on until a new government could be created. So he remains in post, and all the ministers remain in post – and therefore could take decisions in case of emergency.

This is, however, only a temporary solution and a new government will need to be created sooner or later.

The new government 

Forming a new government, however, is likely to be very complicated indeed, due to the fact that no party or group won an overall majority at the elections and in fact the parliament is now split into three mutually detesting groups – the far-right, the centrists and the left alliance.

Graphic showing the make-up of the French parliament after the 2024 legislative elections. Graphic: AFP

In order to create a government, either the centre or the left will need to find new allies to take them up to the magic number of 289 – the number of seats required for a majority. At present the left alliance has 193 seats and the centrists 164, so either of them would need to find a significant number of new allies.

Adding to the complication is that many of these groups loathe each other, and France has no tradition of coalition governments so this is uncharted waters for everybody.

Negotiations may be lengthy.

The role of Macron 

In France a prime minister is not directly elected, it is the president who appoints the prime minister – if the president’s party has a majority then this is essentially a personal choice for the president.

If the president’s party doesn’t have a majority, then the largest group can nominate a prime minister, although it still reliant on the president accepting their candidate.

Technically Macron can appoint anyone he likes as PM – but the prime minister can be deposed if a majority of MPs in parliament support a no-confidence vote (motion de censure). There is therefore little point in Macron picking someone who will immediately be voted out by MPs.

Unrest on the streets

But not everyone is content to wait while negotiations continue behind the scenes – especially the voters of the left who feel that any attempt to install a non-leftist PM would be a denial of democracy since they did, after all, finish the election as the largest group.

Adrien Quatennens, formerly an MP for the far left La France Insoumise until he was forced to stand down after a conviction for domestic assault, called for a “march on Matignon” – the residence of the prime minister.

This is not the official position of the party, however, LFI leader Manuel Bompard told LCI radio: “What Adrien Quatennens is saying, and I agree with him, is that the President gives the impression that he is looking for every way to ignore the results of the elections . .  Yes, there must be the conditions for a popular mobilisation to say: ‘No, Mr President, you must respect the results of the legislative elections’.”

However, he added: “If it reassures you, La France Insoumise is not calling for a march on Matignon”.

The far-right have slammed Quatennens’ call as “a Washington Capitol moment” – referring to the January 6th attack on the US Capitol building by supporters of defeated president Donald Trump.

However a prolonged period of political deadlock could lead to street protests or demos in the weeks to come – albeit more likely to be formally organised marches.

But doesn’t France usually shut down over the summer?

It’s true that the political world usually takes a break over the summer with parliament in recess and politicians retreating to the seaside or the country for a little downtime.

Parliamentary rules mean that parliament must sit for at least 15 days after being recalled – or up until August 2nd – but it’s not clear whether or not that session will be extended.

It’s possible that a deal could be agreed to install a caretaker prime minister over the summer, and then make a final decision on groups and a PM when parliament restarts in September.

This would have the added bonus of providing some political stability over the summer as Paris hosts the Olympics.

Paris’ socialist mayor Anne Hidalgo is in favour of this option, saying that she wants the Attal government to remain to “manage day-to-day business” during the Games.

As for interior minister Gérald Darmanin, he “did a very good job on the Games”, she told France Inter.

Will all this affect the Olympics?

On a practical level probably not, the election took place just three weeks before the start of the Olympics, by which time planning for the event was largely complete.

The government doesn’t get directly involved in organising the Games – that is done by the Paris organising committee, the International Olympic Committee and Paris city hall – although ministers have been involved in issues like security and policing for the event.

Government-level decisions such as legal dispensation to allow face-recognition software were taken long in advance and now the day-to-day organisation of each event is in the hands of the organisers.

The Prime Minister was never scheduled to play an official role in the Games, representing France will be Anne Hidalgo as mayor of host city Paris – and president Emmanuel Macron.

The political chaos is, however, likely to steal focus from the Games and is certainly not the image that France was hoping to project to the world.

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POLITICS

Jupiter’s fall? France’s Macron cuts diminished figure in shake-up

For the past seven years, President Emmanuel Macron has basked in the largely undivided attention of the French nation, enjoying freedom in shaping the country's foreign and domestic policy.

Jupiter's fall? France's Macron cuts diminished figure in shake-up

The appointment of Michel Barnier, a 73-year-old traditional conservative, as Macron’s new prime minister on Thursday marks the beginning of a new era for a president who once famously said he wanted to rule like Jupiter, the Roman god of the sky and thunder.

Under the new power-sharing arrangement that the Elysee presidential palace calls an era of “demanding coexistence”, Macron will cut a diminished figure both at home and abroad.

“We won’t have the same presidency,” said Anne-Charlene Bezzina, an expert in public law.

“It’s up to the prime minister to get his hands dirty, to build alliances and coalitions. He’s the one who’ll be caught in the National Assembly’s crossfire.”

The appointment of Barnier marked a potential turning point following two months of political chaos in the wake of snap elections called by Macron that left no group close to an overall majority in the National Assembly lower house of parliament.

Barnier, a former foreign minister who acted as the European Union’s Brexit negotiator, quickly indicated he would be his own man.

“The president will preside and the government will govern,” Barnier, the oldest premier in the history of modern France, said on Friday evening.

Macron is expected to be the “guarantor” of France’s institutions and no longer dictate government policy.

Having been known for his top-down leadership style since coming to power in 2017, observers say Macron will have to learn humility.

‘Can’t stand still’

The Elysee presidential office and Matignon, the office of the French prime minister, will no longer share advisers, as has been the case for the past seven years, and Macron’s advisers will no longer attend interministerial meetings.

Barnier will be in charge of the budget, security, immigration and healthcare, and will have to take into account the interests of the far-right National Rally, the single largest party in a fragmented parliament, to avoid a motion of no confidence.

Barnier, a member of the right-wing Republicans (LR) party who is not affiliated with the president’s centrist faction, has promised “change”.

“We’re going to do more than just talk,” he said.

But some are sceptical that Macron will be able to take a back seat on the home front.

“Emmanuel Macron can’t stand still. He won’t be able to remain on the sidelines,” said a former presidential adviser, asking not to be named. “At the slightest jolt, he’ll be back.”

Political scientist Vincent Martigny said he would be surprised if Macron “stopped intervening”.

“Politicians don’t change, least of all Macron,” said Martigny. “They have a method, a personality.”

Macron’s parliamentary group, Ensemble pour la Republique, which has 99 seats, has ruled out any “unconditional” support for Barnier but is expected to be the government’s main bulwark in the lower house.

Several outgoing ministers could also be reappointed, with powerful Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin letting it be known he is keen to stay on, possibly with a promotion to the foreign ministry.

Bezzina said that Barnier comes from the centre right, and “it would be incredible” if he became “a violent opponent of someone whose matrix is relatively compatible”.

 ‘He’s proud’

The shifting political landscape also gives Macron, who has long been criticised for being arrogant and disconnected from reality, an opportunity to reconnect with the French people.

“In the coming weeks, he’ll want to have direct contact with the French,” said an outgoing minister, asking not to be named.

Barnier’s predecessor Gabriel Attal, 35, was France’s youngest-ever prime minister and sparked inevitable comparisons to Macron, who became France’s youngest president at the age of 39.

“He’s a little bit like my little brother,” Macron quipped in June.

The relationship dynamic will be very different between Macron and Barnier, who has a half-century career behind him, observers say.

“He’s proud,” a former minister said of Barnier. “Will he be a puppet? I don’t think so.”

Guillaume Klossa, president of the EuropaNova think tank, struck a similar note.

“He’s never been anyone’s vassal,” he said.

Barnier said that he was open to naming ministers of all political stripes, including “people from the left”.

“He’ll want to choose ministers he considers best for the country himself,” said Klossa.

Political analysts warn that France’s political crisis might be far from over.

Eurasia Group risk analysis firm said that Barnier is likely to have minority support in the Assembly, and the far right’s Marine Le Pen will be key to his hopes of success.

She can bring down the Barnier government “whenever she chooses”, it said. “Le Pen’s position could change at any moment.”

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