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POLITICS IN SWEDEN

Politics in Sweden: Should we expect tax cuts in the next budget?

Sweden's finance minister Elisabeth Svantesson has declared the battle against inflation won, and Sweden's official inflation figure has dropped below the 2 percent target. Does this mean we can expect tax cuts next year?

Politics in Sweden: Should we expect tax cuts in the next budget?
Elisabeth Svantesson declares the battle against inflation over at a press conference on June 24th. Photo: Lars Schröder/TT

At the end of June, Svantesson declared the battle against inflation won at a press conference, driving the point home with a joint debate article with Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and interviews in the Dagens Nyheter newspaper and on Sweden’s public broadcaster SR. 

“The battle against inflation is won,” she said in a press release. “For that reason we are now focusing on making Sweden richer again.” 

This puts an end to the cautious fiscal policy Svantesson has driven in her 2023 and 2024 budgets. She has thrown Moderate Party supporters none of the juicy tax cuts they normally expect from the party — saying that this would be inflationary — leading to internal grumbling both in the party and outside it. 

The Moderates even paused an automatic tax cut for high earners to finance a tax cut for low earners back in September, raising eyebrows among party colleagues, some of whom accused the government of pushing Social Democrat policies.

READ ALSO: Politics in Sweden: Are the Moderates leading a ‘socialist government’?

So is Svantesson now going to deliver on tax cuts for all, and if so, what will that mean for your tax bills? 

What tax proposals are out there? 

Despite the triumphant tone, Svantesson was reluctant to give details of which tax cuts she was planing for the 2025 budget on the table this autumn. 

“This needs to be negotiated,” she told the Dagens Nyheter newspaper. “We will come back with exactly which proposals will be part of the autumn budget but we are agreed that we want to strengthen households’ purchasing power.” 

But in the spring, the government has announced a barrage of potential tax cuts, with several put out for consultation, including: 

  • An increase in the employment tax credit or jobbskatteavdraget, which is an income tax credit for anyone with a job. This she said would reduce the annual tax bill of working people by 1,900 kronor and cost a total of 8.1 billion kronor.
  • An extension of ‘expert tax relief’, a special tax regime designed to encourage foreign researchers and highly skilled workers to come to Sweden. 
  • Changes to the 3:12 rules on the taxation of dividends from closely held or family-owned companies (although this was proposed to come into force at the start of 2026).
  • No tax on the first 300,000 kronor saved in an ISK account. 

How much of this will get into the 2024 budget? 

Oscar Warglo, tax advisor at PwC, agreed that the declaration that the battle against inflation was at an end increased Svantesson’s leeway to make more agressive tax cuts. 

“Svantesson said in an interview a few months ago that we’ll see which of these we can afford. So they have three rather big amendments to tax law in the pipeline, and if inflation is coming down, hopefully, they will go ahead with all of those,” he said. 

But he suggested that it was wrong to portray the increase in government activity around tax as purely the result of a changed economic situation, as the government are starting to run out of time to bring in tax reductions before the 2026 election.  

“I see it as a bit more political: they need to do some things because they promised to do this when they went to the election and they haven’t done so much. So in a sense, it’s political. They need to do something before we get into the next election year.” 

Politics in Sweden is The Local’s weekly analysis, guide or look ahead to what’s coming up in Swedish politics. Update your newsletter settings to receive it directly to your inbox. 

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POLITICS IN SWEDEN

Why a lottery scandal could change the funding balance in Swedish politics

A Swedish government inquiry this spring stopped short of backing a ban on lotteries to fund political parties. Could a report about unscrupulous selling techniques for the Social Democrats' lottery provide cover for government to push ahead with it anyway?

Why a lottery scandal could change the funding balance in Swedish politics

Last week, the Dagens Nyheter (DN) newspaper reported that Effective Communications, a telesales company based in Barcelona, had been using heavy-handed techniques to sell the Social Democrats’ Kombispel lottery, for which people subscribe monthly for the chance to win prizes every Friday. 

According to six former workers at the agency, they had to cold call elderly people, who were not properly informed about the fact that they were signing up to a subscription rather than a one-off purchase, at the same time as sales people claimed misleadingly that there was a campaign afoot giving them cheaper tickets, or that they could get tickets at a discounted price. 

The revelations are extremely welcome for Sweden’s government and their support party the Sweden Democrats, reopening the way for a full ban at exactly the point when the government is drawing up its proposal for new lottery legislation.

But they are a disaster for the opposition Social Democrats, which risks losing as much as half of its party funding. 

The Social Democrats’ party secretary Tobias Baudin told DN that he was “furious” when he read the accounts of the sales methods used according to the report, and the party has now sacked the board of the Kombispel lottery, and suspended the use of telemarketing agencies to sell its lotteries.  

“In the future we’re not going to need to investigate this sort of call centre company, because this is never going to happen again,” Baudin said. 

“We expect that Kombispel gets to the bottom of this and finds out if this information is correct,” echoed the party’s group leader, Lena Hallengren. “Of course the task given to them has never been to sell lottery tickets whatever the cost.” 

Shutting off the tap

When the government launched its inquiry into tightening the rules around the lotteries run by political parties, its far-right support party, the Sweden Democrats, were unusually honest about what they were trying to do.  

“We need to shut off the money tap which finances Social Democracy, because they have rigged the whole system,” said Tobias Andersson, the Sweden Democrat MP who chairs the parliament’s committee on industry and trade. “Next year, there will be less money on show at the Sossarnas [Social Democrats’] May Day procession.” 

Nothing in the current rules prevents other parties from running lotteries in the same way as the Social Democrats do, but no other party has had such success. The M-lotteriet lottery the Moderate Party launched in 2020 was an embarrassing failure, bringing in just 4.7 million kronor, a fraction of the 153 million pouring in from the Social Democrats’ Kombilotteriet, Femman och Glädjelotten lotteries combined. 

According to the Dagens Industri newspaper, lotteries brought in half of the Social Democrats’ income in 2021, so bringing in a ban would financially cripple Sweden’s biggest opposition party. 

Too far-reaching

Unfortunately for the government, though, the inquiry it launched in 2023 concluded in March that a ban would go too far, calling instead for increased transparency and tighter rules over selling tickets on credit. 

“In the judgement of the inquiry chair a total ban on party political lotteries would be a much too far-reaching measure,” the chair Gunnar Larsson, a former director-general of Sweden’s Consumer Agency, concluded on in the report on March 1st. 

The report was then put out for consultation, with the deadline for submissions on August 12th, since when the government has been drawing up a proposition which is expected to be sent to parliament before the end of the year. 

Even some high-profile Moderate Party figures have criticised the proposal for a ban, with Ulrica Schenström, a former top political aide to former Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt, denouncing the idea as undemocratic. 

“I usually hold back from making historical comparisons with periods dominated by authoritarian regime or with countries today like Poland, Hungary and Turkey. But what is being proposed brings to mind regimes which deliberately use government power to weaken and ultimately destroy their political opponents,” she wrote on Facebook last year.

Sven Otto Littorin, a former employment minister, also said that the attempt to use government power to weaken a political opponent was worrying. 

“It is easy to be blinded by the working methods and lack of morals of Kombilotto,” he wrote on Facebook. ” And some think it’s fun to slap S [the Social Democrats] in the face. But it is undeniably a real warning bell when government power is used for such purposes. That’s something one should really be above doing.” 

Ban back on the table 

The story in Dagens Nyheter could not have come at a more convenient time for the government. At exactly the point when it has to decide on whether to overrule the inquiry and push for a ban anyway, a story has broken that gives them justification for doing so.

On the same day that the story was published, Niklas Wykman, the financial markets minister who is responsible for the new law, confirmed that the revelations could reopen moves towards a ban. 

“This once again brings back the question of whether there should be a ban,” he told TT. “The main approach on our side has been that there should be clearer regulations. That was also the approach of the inquiry chair. But this puts the question of a ban back on the table.” 

The Social Democrats have not yet given up the fight, though, with Hallengren reiterating on Thursday that a ban on party lotteries would represent “a threat to democracy”.  

The coming months will show whether the government is ready to ignore accusations that it is using undemocratic measures and take a measure that, while it will doubtless save some people from gambling debt and unscrupulous salespeople, will also throttle the funding of their political opponents. 

Politics in Sweden is The Local’s weekly analysis, guide or look ahead to what’s coming up in Swedish politics. Update your newsletter settings to receive it directly to your inbox. 

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