Global social media has been beset for several days by a flash-flood of experts on French politics.
President Emmanuel Macron has, we are told, staged a “coup”. He has “stolen” an election. He has refused to recognise the “victory” of the Left.
He has dismissed the legitimate claim to be Prime Minister of an obscure Paris town hall official. He has refused to recognise that the Left has a constitutional “right” to govern because it has more seats than any other bloc in the National Assembly.
Is any of this true? No.
There is something rather touching (and suspicious) about this sudden interest in French politics on American and British X (ex-Twitter). Some of those claiming a “coup” are the usual suspects from the simplistic wing of the Left. Others are people who seem previously to have been interested in defending Russia’s democratic right to invade its neighbours.
My version of this week’s events…
Macron has refused to hand over the keys of domestic government to Lucie Castets, a kind of leftist Liz Truss who is the compromise figurehead of the ramshackle, four-party left-wing coalition, Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP).
Truss, as ephemeral British PM, attempted two years ago to drive the UK economy into a ditch on the right-hand side of the road. Castets wants to drive the French economy into a ditch on the left-hand side. This is a reversal of the usual driving habits of the two countries.
The NFP and its probable allies have 193 seats out of 577 in the assembly elected on July 7th, slightly more than any other bloc but only one third of the votes. There is nothing in the French constitution or French political history which obliges the President to offer the Prime Minister’s job to the “party that came first”.
Macron is not denying the results of a democratic vote. He is wrestling with an impossible situation, partly of his own making. He is still looking for a new PM 53 days after snap elections produced an Assemblée Nationale split into four factions and 11 groups.
Is Macron trying to find the most comfortable outcome for his remaining 30 months in the Elysée Palace? Of course, he is. He is a politician.
Is he trying to find, as he claims, the best outcome for the “superior interests of the nation?”. Probably. But Macron being Macron, he may have some difficulty in distinguishing between the nation’s destiny and his own.
Has Macron accepted that he was defeated on June 30th and July 7th, even if Marine Le Pen’s Far Right was also defeated?
He has said so several times but perhaps he has not stated it clearly or often enough. He is trying to find an independent Prime Minister who will be capable of finding at least a passive majority in the assembly – in other words a majority willing to tolerate a new government if not actively support it.
To do so, Macron needs to make it clear – or even clearer – that he will stand back from domestic policy and “cohabit” with the new PM.
None of this amounts to a “coup” or a “trampling of democracy”. If anyone is trying to steal the June/July election it is the Left.
They won narrowly more seats than any other bloc but only as part of a Republican Front against Le Pen which brought them many thousands of votes from the centre. If anyone “won” the election it was this anti-Far Right coalition.
The moment that the results were known, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the unelected spiritual leader of the hard-left La France Insoumise, falsely claimed victory for the Left alone.
He rejected all possibility of compromise with the centre or the centre-right. Only the NFP’s hard left programme of economic and social “rupture” with the past – actually Mélenchon’s programme – was acceptable, he said. There would be no compromise. No surrender.
The programme is not a programme for government, it is a programme for national ruin. It involves not just reversing Macron’s pension reform but returning the pension age to 60; massively increasing spending and taxation; and refusing to be bound by the Eurozone’s deficit and debt rules.
If the Left had been elected by a majority of voters to enact this programme, they would have had a democratic right to govern. They weren’t. They got 28 percent of the vote in Round One and just over 25 percent in Round Two.
La France Insoumise has announced street protests against Macron’s alleged coup on September 7th. Politics often goes to the street in France but marches and demonstrations (and almost certainly violence) to back bogus claims have nothing to do with democracy.
READ MORE: Calendar: The strikes and protests to take place in France this autumn
Where, I asked several weeks ago, are the grown-ups of the French Left? Why are the social-democrats in the Socialist Party, recently a party of government, not rebelling against their party leader Olivier Faure’s suicidal pact with Mélenchonsim?
Here is the real news of this week: The grown-ups of the Left are finally speaking out.
At the Socialist Party’s université été (summer university or conference) starting today in Blois, the anti-Mélenchon wing of the party will seek to remove the PS from the NFP alliance.
One of the leaders of the moderate wing of the Socialists, Hélène Geoffroy says the once powerful Socialists should again become a “party of government” by joining a coalition of the left-centre and right with a centre-left Prime Minister independent of President Macron.
This is close to what Macron is hoping for. He is open to a PM of either centre-left or centre-right who will be willing to work with his own centrist alliance. The Elysée says a decision may be made by the weekend. That is probably optimistic.
Several candidates are being mentioned.
They include Carole Delga, 53, the Socialist president of the Occitanie region who sees Macron today as part of a delegation of regional leaders.
They also include Didier Migaud, 72, the ex-Socialist deputy and head of the body which fights corruption in French public life and Bernard Cazeneuve, 61, who was President Hollande’s Prime Minister in 2016-7 but left the Socialist Party in protest against its alliance with the hard left La France Insoumise.
On the centre-right, Macron is expected to approach the President of the northern French region, Xavier Bertrand.
Other choices are available.
How many of the 66 Socialist deputies would break ranks with Mélenchon and support such a government if it had a centre-left PM? Maybe half.
The centre-right says it would not support any coalition but would not necessarily vote against one. Some on the centre right might be tempted all the same to join a government which appeared to be independent of Macron.
How independent would such a government really be? That will be the question which decides how long it survives without a successful censure motion in the assembly.
Many of the supporters of any minority coalition government will be from Macron’s centrist alliance. They will enforce Macron’s red lines, including the survival of his pension and labour market reforms and a deficit-cutting 2025 budget.
There will be no need for Macron to interfere. He must, crucially, allow an independent PM to be independent and to enact left-leaning measures (on say the minimum wage) and right-leaning measures (on say migration and security).
Is Emmanuel Macron capable of standing back in this way and contenting himself with defence and foreign policy? That is the real issue, not fantasies about bloodless “coups”.
Do you agree with John’s take on Macron and the ongoing political crisis? Share your own views in the comments section below.
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Utter liberal nonsense
Totally agree, well written and observed John. Media is stirring up unrest, and protests only show lack of understanding of politics and economics, and offer an excuse for violence for some. If only people would put as much effort into informing themselves as they do in sharing misinformation and stirring up trouble. I hope the PS show sense and break free of this ridiculous alliance.
Excellent common sense analysis – as usual. Thank you.
A very good summary of a complex set of factions and sub-factions, thank you. I agree with the analysis. Whilst certainly part of the problem, I believe Macron is at least looking at a bigger picture and trying to find a longer term solution, unlike both of the extremes.
Refreshing to read John’s sensible, well-balanced article. The sooner the socialists distance themselves from Mélenchon, the better!
Very much share John Lichfield’s position on this. Macron is subject to constitutional and political considerations and in my view he acts well within his role in a political environment where the Parliament is divided into roughly equal blocks, and where within each there are considerable fault lines. This is new in the Vth Republic. In some respects, broadly speaking he is faced with two populist and demagogic extremes which enjoy some measure of popular support, equivalent to the Brexit wave which swept the UK, The Socialist Party is a crucial player but is a shadow of its former self under Olivier Faure, embedded in the NPF with nowhere to go as it stands – though some within it are trying to escape. So, the foundation of a future, relatively stable government can only be found through the centre ground, alliances of the willing, in order to avoid the extreme right RN and the Melenchon camp. Additionally the Presidential elections on 2+years time, condition the pathetic personal ambitions of too many and few are willing to, as they think at least, sacrifice their chances for the sake of the country under Macron’s Presidency. It is a very sad ending to a visionary presidency especially as far as Europe is concerned. But Macron is by now means out of the picture. He will remain as a check against the extremes while ultimately ensuring that serious politicians eventually come around and accept or face up to their real responsibilities. The alternative is le Pen. And that is not going to happen.
( I have followed French politics probably as long as you JL, and authored a book published in 1982 on The Left in France, with N Nugent (MacMillan) if you’re interested!)
Basically a balance between doing the right and sensible thing or doing only the popular thing. That is essentially politics everywhere. And also complicated by those who seek power for their own gratification. The best person for the job is the one who wants it least.
Which bit is liberal claptrap James?
A brilliantly perceptive analysis by John Lichfield on m.le P Macron’s position
“leftist Liz Truss”? Come off it! And the commenter who called this a well-balanced article?!
It does explain the difficulty of the situation but it’s hardly well-balanced.
Macron is taking far too long over this and the longer he takes, the less support (the support he had left) he will have from the general public – the (wo)man in the street, who will be taking to the streets!
Excellent, informed analysis. I long for a renewed Socialist Party to return to governing.
The Local would be so much more interesting with a young, non-conservative columnist. They seem like such a young media, given their articles, and then they have this “I’m always for the status quo” old British guy for a columnist? If I wanted that I’d go to a mainstream british media.
I guess that’s who the local is – their young journalists will turn into another boring, angry-for-no-reason conservative like this guy?
I always look forward to John Lichfield’s articles, and this one summarises why. Insightful, detailed, and knowledgeable. I do hope his prediction about the socialists is right – we need a way out of this imbroglio as soon as possible.
PS I loved the ” the car crash on the wrong side of the road”
It is always such
a pleasure to read John’s thoughts thank you!
Excellent analysis as usual-thank you. Thank goodness for a President who grasps the complexities of the situation and who will hold out for the best solution for the country, which is sans aucun doute, to ensure that the extremists are nowhere near any levers of power.
Very good summary. The current situation is going to require many politicians, especially those in more visible leadership roles, to show mature, adult leadership. I’m not very optimistic, but sometimes adversity brings forth the tempered debate any democracy requires to prove its validity .
Lichfield is much better when he’s writing about the impossibility of incompetent France pulling off their plans for the Opening Ceremony, or his weeks later partial mea-culpa. At least on those topics he’s just a disrespectful curmudgeon, or a clown.
But alas, ceremonies on the Seine are one and done. So it’s back to the full on center-right political analysis. I’m sure to a fellow center-right reader it all sounds spot on – but to everyone else it’s just typical fact-free, based in unreality nonsense. For example, why is Castets a Truss? Because Lichfield says so! I’d wager Lichfield had a positive view of Truss before her center-right policies ended up being disastrous. Now Lichfield likes to use Truss as the example of what the Left would do – because he’s already decided the Left will fail like his policies have failed. It would be comical if it weren’t so blatantly deceptive.
The Local really should consider bringing on a left opinion writer – at least to balance out Lichfield, if not replace him. I mean, the center-right was decimated in these elections – why does The Local continue to elevate them to the exclusion of others? It’s a failure to provide representative context towards the society in which The Local exists.
As for Macron – it’s plainly obvious that he lost and instead of working with the Left, the largest block, he’s trying to break the Left and maintain his control. This is evident in his repeated claims that LFI is just as dangerous as RN. That is disgusting – and only ends up implying Macron doesn’t care or actually understand the dangers of RN. Lichfield hasn’t come out and directly said as such – but the irrational scorn he has for Melechon is quite clear.
The Local needs more or better voices.
Spot on (this time at least) ! If there are any “hijackers” in this situation, it’s Melanchon’s camp. To pretend that they “won” this snap election is a typical ploy by this seasoned mirage-politician; even his coalition partners are united in their dislike of him.
So why do they remain in it … due to a higher dislike of anyone else actually in power (and not just Macron)? Probably. They’ll need to grow out of this before they can actively participate in seeking a solution involving some form of shared power.
As for Macron, the constitution permits him to ride out the rest of his 3+ years as President without a PM if, quite simply, one cannot be found that can command a simple majority in the Parliament. He’s prepared to and will engage in that mode if the situation hands him those deck of cards.