First, here is a reminder about what is at stake in Sunday’s referendum:

Swiss citizens are set to vote on two issues.

One calls for voters to decide whether the second-pillar pension (also referred to as ‘LLP’ and ‘occupational pension’) should be reformed.

The new law would provide for measures to ensure continued funding of future pensions, but critics point out that it would benefit a relatively small number of people and have negative impact on the majority.

You can find out more about what’s at stake here:

READ ALSO: Who would benefit if Switzerland votes for pension reform? 

The second initiative calls for more money and more protected areas for preserving Switzerland’s biodiversity.

It seeks to add an article to the constitution mandating cantons and the federal government to increase protection of nature and landscapes that are at risk of disappearing.

Opponents, however, argue that, if accepted, the initiative would render about one-third of land unusable, including for such important purposes as farming, which would, ultimately, limit the production of food and renewable energy.

What is the forecasted outcome of both votes?

According to the latest poll, published by the GFS research institute in Bern on September 11th, both initiatives are likely to be turned down. 

What is interesting to note, however, is that an earlier voters’ survey, in August, showed that most people were still undecided about how they would vote, but preferences have become more defined as the referendum inches forward.

“For both subjects, the proportion of ‘no’ votes increased during the campaign, while the proportion of ‘yes’ votes decreased,” the gfs institute noted.

This is not at all an usual evolution because “for an initiative, such a tendency towards ‘no’ votes corresponds to the normal expected case of opinion formation.”

In other words, most voters seem to get familiarised with issues at hand, as well as their repercussions on their lives, closer to the referendum date.

What else did the researchers find?

If the vote were to be held today, “the biodiversity initiative would be rejected.”

That is because “75 percent of those surveyed already have firm voting intentions and opinion formation is already advanced.”

“Overall, a ‘no’ vote on biodiversity is the most likely scenario in September 22nd, 2024.”

Regarding the LPP reform, the ‘yes’ and ‘no’ camps are a bit closer together.

Today, 42 percent would vote in favour of the measure, while 51 percent would turn it down.

Despite the narrower gap, “the ‘no’ trend is practically irreversible, which makes the rejection of the reform the most likely scenario,” according to the institute.