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Sweden set to spend 138 billion kronor on defence in 2025

Sweden is boosting its defence budget by 13 billion kronor for next year, going above and beyond Nato spending minimums.

Sweden set to spend 138 billion kronor on defence in 2025
Swedish Defence Minister Pål Jonson. Photo: Jessica Gow/TT

The increase will mean that Sweden’s defence budget in 2025 would amount 138 billion kronor, or 2.4 percent of GDP, the government said, above the 2 percent of GDP minimum that Nato expects its members to allot to defence.

For 2024, defence spending was expected to stand at 2.2 percent of GDP, according to government estimates.

The Nordic country dropped two centuries of military non-alignment and applied for membership in the US-led alliance in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – becoming the 32nd member in March of this year.

“The security situation has continued to deteriorate,” Defence Minister Pål Jonson told a press conference.

Further investments were also announced going up to 2030, which were expected to bring the total military budget to the equivalent of 2.6 percent of GDP by 2028.

In April, a Swedish parliamentary commission recommended measures to strengthen the country’s armed forces and bring defence spending to 2.6 percent of GDP.

The Swedish Defence Commission said the Scandinavian country needed to respond to new conditions, citing heightened tensions in Europe following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Sweden’s recent integration into the Nato military alliance.

It recommended additional army brigades and navy personnel, a rise in the number of conscripts trained up every year and the creation of Sweden’s first ever rocket artillery unit.

In a statement, the government said the 2025 defence budget aimed to “increase the Swedish Armed Forces’ operational capacity by investing in personnel, materiel and infrastructure”.

It said the target for 2025, was for “8,000 conscripts to complete basic training”.

Sweden drastically slashed its defence spending after the end of the Cold War but reversed course following Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea.

In March 2022, after Russia’s full-fledged invasion of Ukraine, Stockholm announced it would increase spending again, aiming to dedicate two percent of GDP to defence “as soon as possible”.

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POLITICS

Full steam ahead for Swedish economy in new three-part budget bill

Sweden has won the fight against inflation and expects GDP to grow next year, Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson proudly proclaimed as she presented the government's budget bill for 2025.

Full steam ahead for Swedish economy in new three-part budget bill

“Going forward, the task will be to ensure that high inflation does not return, and at the same time to implement reforms and investments that build a more prosperous, safer and more secure Sweden for generations to come,” said Svantesson in a statement on Thursday morning.

The government predicts that Swedish GDP will grow 2.5 percent next year followed by 3.2 percent 2026.

Unemployment, however, is expected to remain unchanged at 8.3 percent in 2025, only beginning to drop in 2026 (7.9 percent, according to the government’s predictions, followed by 7.6 percent in 2027).

Svantesson told a press conference that a strong focus on economic growth would create jobs.

The 2025 budget, worked out in collaboration between the right-wing government coalition and far-right Sweden Democrats, is far more expansionary than the restrained budget Svantesson presented last year when Sweden was still fighting high inflation: 60 billion kronor towards new reforms rather than 39 billion kronor for 2024. Almost half, 27 billion kronor, will go towards funding lower taxes.

ANALYSIS:

Svantesson highlighted three areas in which new reforms are prioritised:

  • Strengthening household purchasing power after several years of the high cost of living putting a strain on household budgets, with reforms set to push the tax burden to its lowest level since 1980, according to the government.
  • Reinstating the “work first” principle, meaning that people should work rather than live on benefits. Some of the measures include language training for parents born abroad and increasing the number of places in vocational adult education.
  • Increasing growth, focusing on investments in research, infrastructure and electricity supply.

In the debate in parliament on Thursday, the centre-left opposition is expected to criticise the government for lowering taxes for high earners and not investing enough in welfare. 

Investments in healthcare, social care and education are significantly reduced in this budget compared to last year: down from 16 billion kronor to 7.5 billion kronor. 

Meanwhile, the hike of the employment tax credit (jobbskatteavdraget) – a tax reduction given to people who pay tax on their job income – is expected to lead to a 3,671 kronor tax cut for people on the median salary of 462,000 kronor per year.

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