Scholz’s centre-left SPD won around 30.9 percent of the vote, gaining a slight lead over the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD), which scored about 29.2 percent, according to projections by public broadcasters.
The result offers some respite for Scholz’s embattled coalition government, which has sunk in opinion polls a year ahead of national elections.
The vote in Brandenburg has been closely watched because Scholz’s SPD has ruled there ever since Germany’s 1990 reunification. The chancellor’s own electoral district is in the state capital Potsdam.
The AfD, which rails against asylum-seekers, multiculturalism, Islam and Scholz’s government, had hoped to replicate its recent electoral success in the east
Three weeks ago, it stunned the political establishment by taking first place in a parliamentary vote, for the first time ever, in the eastern state of Thuringia and coming a close second in neighbouring Saxony.
Despite its ballot box success, the AfD is unlikely to take power in any state since all other mainstream parties have so far ruled out entering into a governing alliance with the party.
READ ALSO: 6 articles to help you understand Germany’s eastern state elections
Turnout reaches 74 percent
Brandenburg’s popular SPD state premier Dietmar Woidke had kept his distance during the campaign from his party colleague Scholz.
In office for more than a decade, Woidke had also thrown down a challenge to voters, by telling them he would quit if the AfD wins.
The AfD, which failed in its aim “to send Woidke into retirement”, nonetheless hailed its strong showing.
Party co-leader Tino Chrupalla said it had “taken gold once and silver twice” in three elections in the east this month.
A visibly relieved Woidke basked in the applause from the party faithful, celebrating the close win in a race where just weeks ago his party had trailed the AfD in the opinion polls.
The goal, he said, had been to prevent Brandenburg from being marked with a “great, brown stamp”, the colour associated with fascism.
The message appeared to have energised voters, as turnout reached 74 percent.
Another AfD co-leader, Alice Weidel, said it was now clear that overall “we are the strongest force in the east”, a region that still lags behind western Germany in jobs and wealth.
“It’s an important stage, as you’ll see in the federal elections,” she said.
Scholz is unlikely to profit much from the victory, pollster Manfred Guellner told the Tagesspiegel daily, arguing that the election was all about Woidke.
“Woidke has everything that Olaf Scholz lacks: approval, sympathy, a down-to-earth attitude, cohesive strength,” said Guellner. “In this respect, Woidke is the anti-Scholz.”
Der Spiegel magazine agreed. While Scholz “must be pretty relieved” that his party’s success “brings stability”, the chancellor “did not contribute at all to this miracle”, it said.
‘Fear of attacks’
The decade-old AfD, originally a eurosceptic fringe party, has long stoked public fears about irregular migration, especially after a string of recent attacks with suspected Islamist motives.
The AfD’s rhetoric has heaped pressure on Scholz and his governing allies, the Free Democrats and the Greens, an ecologist party that looked set to be booted out of the state legislature.
Infighting in the national government has seen Scholz’s approval ratings plummet. In contrast defence minister Boris Pistorius, also a Social Democrat, often tops surveys as Germany’s most popular politician.
In the long run-up to national elections in September 2025, the opposition conservatives of the CDU-CSU alliance last week selected their party leader Friedrich Merz as their top candidate.
READ ALSO: Who is the conservative leader hoping to become Germany’s new chancellor?
But the CDU also took a beating in Brandenburg, winning only around 11 percent.
New leftist party
This year has also seen the emergence of a second populist party, the left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which won around 12 percent in Brandenburg.
Hailing from former East Germany, Wagenknecht is a veteran opposition politician and frequent TV talk show guest who quit the hard-left Die Linke party to form her own movement.
She has described the BSW’s policies as “leftist-conservative” — a blend of economic policies that help workers and the poor and conservative cultural positions including on limiting immigration.
After scoring well in three eastern state elections, Wagenknecht’s party could gain a potential kingmaker role, complicating the task for the other parties who oppose her pro-Russia and anti-NATO stance.
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One cannot help but notice a longstanding, consistent bias in reporting here. AfD is always “extreme” or “far” right. Yet Die Linke, which is the successor party to the communist SED, the state party of the DDR, is never described in similarly indicting terms, such as “extreme Left.”